In 71 years of bilateral relations, this was only the fifth official high-level engagement between the US and Nepal—not including the ones at the undersecretary and assistant secretary of state levels. Why then is America sud­denly giving importance to its relations with Nepal?

 

Make America great again

For cues, one needs to look at the churning inside the US gov­ernment since the inauguration of Donald J Trump as the 45th President in January 2017.

President Trump’s sloganeer­ing under the broad theme of ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) may appear crude given his mercurial nature. But there is lot more sophistication there than meets the eye. While Trump is the salesperson (to his base), there are several architects behind this major reordering of American economic, security, for­eign and environmental policies, among others.

On the economic front, the trade and tariff war with China and even with US allies is what Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist, describes as an effort to reorder the global supply chain to make it Ameri­ca-centric again. Bannon, a for­mer navy officer and investment banker, argues that America has a limited window of opportunity before China becomes too power­ful to be confronted on economic terms. Bannon may have left the White House, but there are oth­ers in the US administration who share his worldview.

With the elevation of Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State straight from the CIA, American security and for­eign policies appear to be morphing into one. Pompeo, a former hawkish Congressman from Kansas, is the first former CIA director to take charge of the State Department. Histor­ically, the next career stop for former CIA chiefs is either the Pentagon or the National Security Council. That is because, at the heart of America’s decision-mak­ing process, there used to be an imaginary line between security hawks and doves—giving com­peting but useful inputs to the President for the best course of action. (Ex CIA Director Walter Bedel Smith did become Under­secretary of State in 1953 and a few were appointed ambassadors at a later stage, but none became the chief diplomat).

These are not just personnel changes in America; these are major changes in terms of world- view. Empires and big powers need well-defined enemies to ensure internal coherence. Trump’s team has decided that China, not Russia, is their next strategic rival, and that current efforts to contain Beijing have been inadequate. Even the ‘civi­lizational risk’ posed by Islamic terrorism seems to have been downgraded under Trump’s pres­idency, as demonstrated by the decision to pull out troops from Syria and Afghanistan.

 

Nepal’s challenges

America also appears to have decided that it will no lon­ger outsource its initiatives to its allies or proxies but rather take direct charge—in large part due to the fact that the allies are no longer in lockstep with the new American approach. Japan, India and South Korea have been undergoing their own rapprochement with China. This means the wish of Nepali officials and strategic thinkers, who have been urging the US to stop looking at Nepal through an Indian lens, might just come true. But this isn’t without risk—particularly against the backdrop of Nepal seeking to court both China and the US. Yes we need to diversify our relations, but we also need to attain internal coherence and clarity on what our national interests are. Subse­quently, we also need to build our negotiating capacity.

As winds of a new cold war blow, Nepal has to understand the changes within the US to avoid being caught in the crossfire and misled by false expectations. America, under Trump, wants to retain its preeminent status, with­out necessarily wanting to bear the cost it entails—as indicated by its continued demands from NATO and other allies to pay their ‘fair’ share.