Whether the government of KP Sharma Oli has been able to deliver on its electoral promise of ‘prosperity’ in its eight months in office is questionable. Its other promise of ‘stability’, it appears, will also not be easy to keep. Set aside for a moment the implications of the ruling coa­lition’s failure to heed the demands of the Madhesi parties, which have given the government until the end of Chhat to amend the constitution. It looks like an even bigger danger lurks within the Nepal Communist Party itself. No, this threat does not come from senior leader Madhav Kumar Nepal, who has mounted a vigorous criticism of the government of his own party. Nepal is making his own political calculations ahead of the first general convention of the merged party. But he does not seem minded to topple the government, a move that could badly backfire on the veteran leader.

A more dangerous sign that not everything is well in the NCP came when sitting federal MPs were being put under pressure to resign and vacate their parliamentary seat for another senior leader Bamdev Gautam. It was hard to buy the prime minister’s argument, in what was a lame attempt to sidestep the issue, that Gautam’s loss in his Bardiya con­stituency in the federal election was somehow ‘unnatural’ and Gautam was thus looking for a restitution. Nor was it easy to believe that the presence of Gautam—who has had a checkered history in government—in the federal parliament is ‘indispensable’.

Some people close to the prime minister saw the attempt to elect Gautam to the federal parliament as ultimately aimed at unseating Oli. In their reading, it was part of a plot hatched by Gautam and party co-chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal—possibly with India’s backing. Apparently, India is none-too-pleased with Oli’s growing China tilt and Dahal has given the Indian establishment credible assurance that he will follow their playbook.

If Gautam wins the by-election, he would directly challenge Oli for government leadership; if he losses, he would mount a strong revolt against ‘in-party conspiracy’ to defeat him. Dis­sent will grow. One thing will lead to another and ultimately Gautam will find a way to unseat Oli and become the prime minister himself. Dahal would then lead the party. And both these developments will have New Delhi’s blessings.

Perhaps this is just another conspiracy theory and there is no more to it than Gautam’s desire to be MP again. But all these theories of sinister plots to destabilize the party and the country emanating from within the NCP circle suggest that Oli’s hold over his party is far from absolute and Nepalis should not take stability for granted.