Nepal is important for China because of Tibet. Nepal is gateway to South Asian mar­kets. President Xi will visit Nepal soon. China accorded warm wel­come to Nepali PM KP Oli because it has started to take us seriously. Or so the Nepali media would have us believe.

 

But is it really so?

 

China’s Tibet concern

 

For some strange reason we are in a time warp. The powers that played an active role in creating and supporting the Tibetan rebels in the 1950s and the 1960s did not back then believe China would give up its control of Tibet. Nor do they believe it now. The ragtag band of Khampa rebels did carry out sporadic attacks on the Chi­nese forces using our territory as their base, but planning and other things were done from Dhaka (or the Dacca back then), Washington DC and other places. China knows that Nepal was and is just a pawn in the grand chessboard of world politics and it now knows how to deal with the potentates on its terms. It does not need us to address its security concerns.

 

To believe that Nepal is import­ant for Tibet’s security is to under­mine the remarkable advances in Chinese defense and intelligence capabilities as well as its global economic reach, and overesti­mate ourselves. And strangely, we keep forgetting that we are not the only country that borders Tibet province. India does too. The Tibetan Government-in-Exile is actually based in India. But Chi­na apologists use Tibet to justify every Chinese action (or inaction) in Nepal.

 

‘Gateway’ to South Asia

 

Yes Nepal is a gateway to South Asia. But it is not the only gate­way for China to the Indian and South Asian markets and beyond. Myanmar is in a better position. Myanmar provides China with yet another access to the Indian Ocean and help solve its Malac­ca dilemma. It is where China’s oceanic, strategic and economic interests converge. Unlike Nepal, India doesn’t think of it as fall­ing exclusively under its sphere nor can it match years of Chinese investment and influence there.

 

The idea of the BCIM (Bangla­desh, China, India and Myan­mar) economic corridor between India and China is nearly two decades old. India sees the BRI (the Belt and Road Initiative) as going against its strategic inter­ests, “however, in the BCIM proj­ect, India is on board” (Can an India-China ‘Reset’ Help BCIM?, The Diplomat, June 9).

 

Both India and China realize the importance of doing away with the lengthy sea route in their bilateral trade. Therefore, both may settle on the BCIM economic corridor linking Kolkata with Kun­ming via Myanmar. The BCIM pre­dates the BRI and India can claim it too has a say in It. China could develop it independently of the BRI, despite claiming it falls under the BRI these days, and/or delay/give up on its plans to link it with the China-Pakistan Economic Cor­ridor. The BCIM could very well be a turning point in deepening economic cooperation between India and China.

 

The Keyrung-Kathmandu train, even if it materializes, is not going to be a game changer for years. India will not want to trade with China via Nepal using the infra­structure built under the BRI because it will be interpreted as India supporting the initiative.

 

China and India do not remotely view Nepal as a trading link; they would otherwise have included Nepal as a branch road in the BCIM and much would have been done in the proposed railway.

 

President Xi’s visit

 

China understands Nepal is des­perate to host Xi to establish the government of the day’s national­ist credentials. It also gets that the Oli-led government was elected on anti-India plank and the Chi­nese president’s visit will be seen as endorsing it. China, as a mature power, won’t do it.

 

There’s also a pattern to presi­dent Xi’s visit to South Asia, minus India and Pakistan. The visits are to the countries that China fears are moving into Japan’s orbit. It knows we are not moving any­where. So let’s be hopeful but not count on a visit to Nepal by President Xi anytime soon. It’s too early for that.

 

Let’s thank China for the “warm” welcome accorded to PM Oli but let’s not read too much into it. China accords the same level of welcome to all visiting dignitaries.