Even as the ‘democratic credentials’ of his government is increasingly being questioned, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli still gets the benefit of doubt when it comes to his foreign policy conduct. In both his terms as prime minister, he has made a concerted effort to balance India and China, in the realization that only by increasing Nepal’s trade and connectivity with China can the country stop being over-reliant on India. And only then will Nepal be able to once and for all forestall India’s blockade-like pressure tactics.

Near the end of his political career, he also seems determined to leave behind a potent legacy: of the national leader who actually did something to maintain ‘equidistance’ between India and China—rather than only pay lip-service to the concept like his predecessors. But there is a wee problem. Even as PM Oli wants to enhance every kind of cooperation with China, the northern neighbor seems guarded. Perhaps it wants to first ensure that deepened ties with Nepal will not impinge on its security concerns over Tibet. Perhaps the recent thaw in India-China relations—with some even speculating that the two countries have settled their respective spheres of influence in South Asia—have something to do with it. 

“Such a possibility cannot be ruled out,” says Bhaskar Koirala, the Director of Nepal Institute of International and Strategic Studies. The changing regional dynamics could thus add to Nepal’s foreign policy challenges. PM Oli has thus far shown a remarkable ability to keep both India and China in good humor. He will have to be even more skillful in the days ahead.

 

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