For many years to come, the June 12 summit between the American President Donald Trump and the North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jung-un will be studied by the students of international relations. Scholars will keep presenting us with new facts that led to the historic summit in Singapore. But if what transpired in China between Richard Nixon and Chairman Mao in1972 is any guide (since many analysts are comparing Trump and Kim, to Nixon and Mao) we can draw three conclusions from the nice surprise. 

First, the North Korean regime is in dire need of cash, as many analysts have argued, after years of sanctions and heavy expenses on the part of the state to develop hydrogen bomb and ICBMs. Maybe the economic problems led the North Korean government to the talks so that the sanctions would be eased, which, in turn, would not only help get the economy on track but also avoid any popular protests that could signal an end to the Kim regime.

One of the reasons Mao was open to talks with the Americans was that the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976) had devastated the Chinese economy. Unable to control the mayhem he unleashed, by 1971 Mao knew that China needed various reforms, including economic, for the CCP’s survival. 

Second, the North Korean regime feared it could be overturned by rebel factions supported by either the American, Russian, Japanese, South Korean or the Chinese (at this point there's no way to know which faction is powerful in North Korea). Perhaps to counter such threats and avoid a Syria-like situation, Kim took a proactive measure and decided that direct talks with America would ensure his survival and would result in little or no bad foreign press when he removes the factions he deems dangerous to his regime.

Another reason Mao was open to talks with the Americans was that he feared he could be overthrown by the pro-Soviet faction in the CCP. Lin Biao, who allegedly plotted a coup against Mao in 1971, was of the opinion that China needed to maintain good relations with the Soviet Union and emulate its development model. Just as Kim got rid of his uncle and other officials he thought could threaten his rule, Mao had Peng Dehuai and Liu Shaoqi brutually tortured, among other prominent communist party members who opposed him. Mao suspected them of being sympathetic or close to the Soviets.

And the third factor, Kim feared a possible joint attack by South Korea and America and maybe even by Japan if he were to continue with the nuclear program and bellicose rhetoric. Shinzo Abe, unlike his predecessors, has made it clear that Japan too would not shy away from proactive measures if its’ or its allies’ interests are threatened.  

Mao was afraid that border skirmishes with the Soviet Union could lead to a full-blown war. Hence he was open to dealing with the Americans, or better yet, to forging a “strategic partnership” to counter the Soviet expansionism. 

Besides these, other factors that could have led to the Kim-Trump historic summit could be:

North Korea feared that Japan would also develop nuclear weapons, which would render its arsenal useless.

Maybe, as many have speculated, Kim felt he already has the weapons needed for his regime’s survival, and it was about time he joined the world community. Because of the hydrogen bomb and ICBM, he could talk with the US president from a position of strength. 

Perhaps Kim realized that if he has to keep relying on China and Russia by antagonizing the rest, soon, the two countries would be calling the shots in North Korea. He probably felt he could be used by them in their dealings with the US, thereby giving North Korea no say in its own affairs. Or he could be the victim in the event of a proxy war between the two countries.

And Trump could have calculated that if he can get this issue resolved, he will have no need to cajole the Chinese and will thus be able to take a tougher stand against China on trade and South China Sea and other issues. He also didn't want any interlocutors so that he himself could take all the credit for resolving the crisis.

Or maybe the Chinese themselves encouraged the North Koreans to hold talks with the US to avoid taking a side in any untoward situation. China realized that it would be in a very difficult position if a war broke out between the US and North Korea. 

Or the summit is a gift from Russia to the Trump, who has shown eagerness to mend ties with it and make it an active member of the international community/organizations including the G7, or to give some positive media to Trump in light of ongoing Mueller investigation into Russia’s role in the US presidential election. 

Perhaps a combination of all these factors were responsible for the June 12 historic summit. For now all we can do is speculate.

Whatever the reasons, both Trump and Kim deserve credit for beginning the talks to achieve lasting peace in the Korean Peninsula. The people who worked behind the scenes, both in North Korea in the US, some visibly and some covertly, deserve some credit too.