Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s two-day whis­tle-stop tour of Nepal has created a lot of hoopla. Over the past few weeks an endless stream of op-eds and commen­taries has raised doubts about Modi’s ‘real intent’. Likewise, on the eve of Modi’s visit, the nationalist credentials of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli were questioned, as he had suppos­edly kowtowed before his Indian masters. There may be some substance to these suspicions. But in some ways they are also self-defeating. Whether or not you endorse Oli’s brand of politics, it is hard to deny that no other contemporary prime minister of Nepal has been as articulate in defending Nepal’s interests and in denouncing even a hint of foreign meddling. Oli has made some astute moves too.

 

For instance, during his last visit to India, “Oli managed to engage Modi on equal terms, reflecting a more confident Nepal,” says Constantino Xavier, a fellow at Carnegie India, a New Delhi-based think-tank. “This was unprecedented in India-Nepal relations, as successive generations of leaders in Kathmandu since 1950 chose one of two extremes with India: they were either subservient or confrontational, neither of which served Nepal’s interest.”

 

Oli is proving to be a more skilled statesman because he has avoided both these extreme options, says Xavier, who is originally from Portugal. “Oli recognizes that he loses little by playing into Modi’s playbook, giving the Indian leader all the optics and symbolic reverence of bilateral visits, even while he silently keeps developing real connectivity and interde­pendence with China. This is Nepal’s strategic tradition of non-alignment at its best, balancing both India and China.”

 

These observations of a neutral observer of Nepal-India relations suggest two things. One, Modi and the Indian estab­lishment are keen on improving relations with Nepal after bilateral ties reached their nadir during the blockade. Ahead of the 2019 general elections, they clearly want to show to the Indian public that Modi’s ‘neighborhood first’ policy, if not a complete success, has not been a total failure either.

 

Two, PM Oli seems to be making genuine effort to establish relations with India on a more equal footing. This means clearly articulating Nepal’s sovereign right to enter into any kind of relation with any country in the world, including China. Perhaps Oli realizes that he is at the fag end of his polit­ical career and as such wants to leave behind a strong legacy. According to his aides, he wants above all to be remembered as the first Nepali leader who had the confidence to negotiate with India as an equal and as a leader who not just talked but actually did something to balance India and China.

 

When judging Modi’s latest Nepal visit, let us look not only at the agreements that are signed (or not signed). Let us also evaluate it in terms of PM Oli’s long-term strategic vision.