A few days ago, Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali returned from a visit to China. It is widely believed that his trip was planned to ready the grounds for Oli’s impending visit to China. Gyawali also reaffirmed Nepal’s commitment to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) where he highlighted five priority areas for Nepal to work with China. The BRI, as we well know, has been a bane for our southern neighbor as the ambitious project actively promotes strong Chinese ties with regions tra­ditionally considered to be within India’s ‘sphere of influence’.

 

Gyawali made one statement during his visit to China that did the rounds on social media here in Nepal: he shared with Chi­nese officials a dream of his to ride to China on a train from Nepal, soaking up the scenic beauty of the Himalayas as he crosses the bor­der. As such, the five priority areas under BRI for Nepal, Gyawali explained, would be expanding transport networks, building inter-country electricity networks, modernizing agriculture, promot­ing tourism and fostering peo­ple-to-people ties. Such plans have been in the hearts of many Nepalis for a long time and, if implemented, would indeed propel Nepal’s socio-economic transformation.

 

But truth is that such conversa­tions have been going on between officials of Nepal, and India and China for many years. The narrative has somewhat changed since the 2015 India-backed blockade, but the effort to transform these con­versations into reality is what really matters. And as we know, conversa­tions with the Chinese are still slow and dull compared with those with the Indians.

 

In line with protocol and geopolit­ical niceties, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Nepal next week. Modi’s visit is expected to create some turbulence and it will be closely watched by the Nepali leadership and the public alike. It is likely that some section of the population will protest Modi’s visit and the tensions from the 2015 blockade will resurface to a certain extent. However, Modi knows well that Nepalis have a short public memory and will easily forget the past if a fresh and positive envi­ronment for Nepal-India relations can be built through this trip. Such an environment can easily be cre­ated if substantive agreements and concrete implementation timelines for major development projects can be highlighted. That would go a long way in softening the stance of a large section of the Nepali public toward India.

 

In recent years, the popular sentiment in Nepal has been inclined toward China and Modi now has a chance to push back, if only by a few inches. However, it’s worth remembering that PM Oli him­self has been a major catalyst in promoting closer ties with China and in distancing common Nepalis from the Indian state and leader­ship. And no sooner does Modi leave Nepal than Oli will begin to plan his trip to China.

 

With such high level visits taking place one after another, the develop­ment discourse has really gathered momentum. For the first time, there is a general consensus among top Nepali leaders that major political goals have been achieved and that the country’s priority must shift to development. As such, the question for Modi is whether he will choose to dwell on politics or help Nepal’s government lay the ground for ful­filling the development promises it has made to the Nepali people.