By limiting his India trip to three days, Prime Minister KP Oli has broken with the tradition of new Nepali prime ministers coming here at least for a week. Oli has tried to make the visit businesslike by wrapping up official duties in a single day. Previous visits of Nepali prime ministers generally included such ancillary tasks as observation of development projects in other parts of India, visits to religious sites, acceptance of an honorary degree from a university, etc. In fact, even Oli’s last trip to New Delhi as prime minister—from February 19-24, 2018—was twice as long as his current visit. In New Delhi, Oli and Modi will remotely inaugurate the integrated check point at Birgunj as well as lay the foundation of the Arun III hydroelectric project. There had been considerable diplomatic effort to credit the inaugurations of these projects to Sher Bahadur Deuba while he was heading the previous Nepali Congress-Maoist Center gov­ernment. Former Nepali ambassa­dor to India, Deep Kumar Upadhyay, had even tried to persuade Modi to go to Nepal, but New Delhi con­sidered such a visit inappropriate at a time when Nepal was caught up in election fever. As a result, Oli will get the credit for inaugurating these projects. Some view this as an expression of Delhi’s commitment to carry out major projects even when there is a communist govern­ment in Nepal.

 

Besides these, Oli and his Indian counterpart will discuss many old bilateral issues. Still, says a high-lev­el officer at the Nepali Embassy, the visit will focus exclusively on economic and development issues. Agreements are likely on, among other things, agriculture modern­ization, water transport, integrated check posts and new air routes. According to the acting ambassa­dor to India, Bharat Kumar Regmi, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has made preparations to make the visit ‘substantial’. He says discussions between the two prime ministers will center on issues of mutual inter­est, including implementation of past agreements.

 

Only a formality?

 

But according to Nihar R. Nayak, a research fellow at the Institute of Defense Studies and Analyses in New Delhi, over the past few decades, there has hardly been any difference between the numerous high-level visits of Nepali prime min­isters to India. “It’s the second visit of a Nepali prime minister in just seven months. Sher Bahadur Deu­ba had come here in August. Such frequent visits suggest they are no more than a formality,” says Nayak.

 

But, he adds, New Delhi’s ‘course correction’ is an encouraging sign. “It was during Oli’s previous term as prime minister that ties between India and Nepal had soured. This visit will re-orient bilateral relations in a positive direction.”

 

Oli will need economic aid from both India and China in order to implement federalism. His relations with China are already cordial. Now he is in search of better rela­tions with India. At the same time, China also wants to push trilateral relationship with India and Nepal. But it cannot make those lucrative inroads into the big Indian markets if Nepal-India ties remain patchy. China, in other words, needs Nepal’s help for the success of its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

 

Nayak speculates that Oli could have made India his first foreign destination after taking China into confidence. “It’s possi­ble that Oli will raise the issue of trilateral cooperation.”

 

You first

 

Modi had invited Oli even before Oli became the prime minister. “You first,” Oli had responded. Indeed there had been diplomatic efforts to get Modi to visit Nepal first. But with­out a plenipotentiary ambassador in India, this was always going to be a tall order. In contrast, many in New Delhi praise the active and incisive role being played by Manjeev Singh Puri, the Indian ambassador to Nepal. Puri, who enjoys special rap­port with Modi, is generally credited for salvaging New Delhi’s relations with Oli. But many here also view the left unity and Pakistani Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi’s abrupt visit to Nepal as evidence of Puri’s shortcomings.

 

Modi last visited Nepal in 2014. There has not been a high-level visit from India to Nepal after the then Indian president Pranab Mukher­jee’s November 2016 trip. The Nepali side, as such, was eager to get Modi to Nepal first, but to no avail.

 

On the other hand, Modi has been successful in getting Oli to visit India before Chinese President Xi Jinping visits Nepal, and before the Nepali prime minister has had a chance to go to China. Modi rolling out the red carpet for Oli and Oli making India his maiden foreign trip show that the two prime ministers see each other as indispensable.

 

New dimensions

 

Ashok Mehta, a retired major gen­eral in the Indian Army and an old Nepal hand, reckons India will find it easy to work with the current Nepali government that is guaran­teed to survive at least the next two years. Mehta, who is wary of the practical aspects of the left unity in Nepal, also thinks Oli’s pro-China tilt will make him view Nepal-India ties differently. “Oli, nonetheless, understands Nepal’s geopolitical situation and the indispensabili­ty of India. So he’s continuing the tradition of Nepali prime ministers making India their first foreign trip”.

 

During every India visit of a Nepali prime minister, there is talk of strengthen­ing the historical, economic and socio-cultural ties between the two neighbors. Over the past four years, the visits of previous Prime Ministers Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ and Sher Bahadur Deuba as well as that of President Bidya Devi Bhandari all revolved around the cli­chéd ‘new dimension in Nepal-India relations’.

 

But the Indian intelli­gentsia and media persons have consistently pointed out the necessity of acknowledging the practical challenges inherent in Nepal-India relations. SD Muni, a professor emeritus of international relations at Jawaharlal Nehru Uni­versity, New Delhi, has repeatedly stressed the importance of timely implementation of Indian projects in Nepal.

 

In a recent talk-show, Muni said that although India cannot compete against China in financial terms, it should still adopt a policy of com­pleting and handing over such proj­ects on time. In the same show, Suhasini Haidar, an Indian journalist and foreign policy analyst, argued that relations between India and Nepal soured after India tried to flex its muscles.

 

By organizing this visit, the Indian side wants to convey that India’s relationship with PM Oli is normal. But others argue that India is once again continuing with its flawed pol­icy of providing patronage to indi­vidual leaders rather than improv­ing institutional ties.

 

Mutually beneficial

 

Whatever the case, strained ties with neighbors could pose problems for the ruling BJP in the general elections next year. As the main opposition, the Indian National Con­gress, has ramped up its criticism of Modi’s mishandling of South Asia policy, the BJP appears intent on improving neighborhood ties. For one, it does not want to be seen as ‘losing Nepal to China’.

 

Oli for his part seems to understand that Nepal has no option but to maintain good relations with India, so he too has embraced India’s forget-past-bitterness-and-move-ahead strategy.

 

In the lead up to the visit, the common feeling here in New Delhi was that ‘pro-China’ Oli may be hard to turn around, but he has certainly made the right start by making India his first foreign stop.

 

 

 

 BY ASHA THAPALIYA | New Delhi