NRB-directed capital increment of the banking and financial sector followed by the insurance board-di­rected one for the life and non-life insurance companies had already created a glut in the secondary mar­ket. Unfortunately, concerned reg­ulatory and policy making bodies were hardly prepared for the glut. When the floodgates opened, the regulatory body simply released a press communiqué asking the inves­tors and traders “not to panic”— something which was too little too late. The call was hardly heard and the index continued moving south.

 

The promise of three levels of elections, implementation of the new constitution, and hope of new and stable government and socio-economic development kept most investors and traders hope­ful. They were duly rewarded with good bounce-backs at least on three occasions ( July/August 2017 when the index reached 1,675, Septem­ber 2017 when it reached 1,587, and November/December 2017 when it got to 1,556) triggered by “positive” political news. Smart traders were able to accumulate at successive support zones while booking profit whenever the mar­ket became euphoric with “feel-good” political news and events. The euphoria turned into momentary blitz of opportunity.

 

With each bounce-back, Mr. Mar­ket continued losing its steam and overall index continued to shed more points. Just a few weeks back, when the confirmation of Mr. Oli as prime-minister and promise of stable government hit the market, it galloped by 69 points, giving a second chance to the ones who were either unable to book profit or make a stop loss at previous touching of 1,445-1,450 zone.

 

Last week the warning bells started ringing louder when one of the commercial banks came up with saving deposit product at 10 percent return. The emergency meeting of the bankers’ association had an agreement to put a ceiling of 11 per­cent on term deposits and 8 percent on saving deposits. But the damage was clearly inflicted on already weak market sentiments. Mr. Market, which had respected 1,380-1,390 support zone on multiple occasions since the beginning of 2018, showed reluctance to show same respect this time. On February 28, the multi-month trendline support at 1,350 also had a breakout with volume and this was the last straw. Wholesale panic selling ensued on the last hour of the day and the bloodbath contin­ued through this week too.

 

On March 5, another commercial bank came up with a “structured term deposit” product at 9 percent with minimum monthly deposit of Rs 500 and above. This unfortu­nately indicates that the bloody nose of Mr. Bull is going to need more time to heal.

 

By Manil Shrestha