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In a historic election, the Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP) has decimated the established and traditional parties in the country, including the Nepali Congress (NC) led by Gagan Thapa and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) led by former prime minister KP Sharma Oli. The landslide victory is significant because it is the first time any party has achieved a majority since the enactment of the 2015 constitution. This represents a major change in Nepali politics, as the country has not experienced a stable government in the past two decades. No government in Nepal has completed a full five-year term. 

For the first time, Nepal may witness a majority government with a full term. The Nepal election for 275 parliamentary seats is a mix of first-past-the-post (FPTP) and proportional representation (PR) systems, which makes it more difficult to form a stable majority government, especially when thousands of candidates are in the fray. However, the RSP’s historic win is set to change that perception.

RSP’s victory: The fall of the old guard

The RSP had a meteoric rise after the popular former Kathmandu mayor Balendra (Balen) Shah became its prime ministerial candidate. However, the rise of Balen Shah and RSP is owed to the traditional politics of old leaders, most of whom served their interests. The March election became necessary after the GenZ protests toppled the government in September last year. These protests were a result of years of corruption, misgovernance, unemployment and instability in the country. 

However, the social media ban by the government acted as an immediate trigger for the protests, which were fuelled by widespread discontent among the youth regarding the government’s failure to address their concerns. The uprising was so intense that over 70 people lost their lives, and infrastructure worth Rs 84.45bn was damaged. Later, the uprising came to symbolize the clash between the old generation and the new.

The RSP promises a new and a better future for the Nepali people. It promises expansion of the economy to $100bn, per capita income of around $3000, creation of 1.2m jobs, a growth rate of seven percent, and universal healthcare insurance in five years. These are ambitious targets for a landlocked country like Nepal. Though promises like these are great for attracting the attention of voters, it remains to be seen how the RSP plans to deliver once it forms the government.

Analysts say the RSP is experiencing a groundswell, particularly because Nepali politics offers few alternatives due to repeated failures after each election, which makes the emergence of new parties like the RSP and candidates like Balen particularly significant in providing fresh perspectives and potential solutions to longstanding issues. Expectations are high that the emergence of a new legitimate government in Nepal will instill some stability in the country.

However, the stability of Nepal will depend on how well the new government implements the reforms without alienating the general people. This entails addressing the needs and concerns of various communities and promoting inclusive participation in the political process, which includes actively engaging with marginalized groups and fostering dialogue to build trust and cooperation among different sectors of society. Inclusive government is the key to a stable government. The new government will need to tackle the problems of corruption and unemployment (currently above 20 percent) and work toward effective governance.

Though the rise of RSP and Balen Shah is interlinked with the GenZ revolution and their demands for accountability in governance, there is no clear roadmap yet for how the RSP will fulfil the demands of GenZ raised in the 10-point agreement. The agreement itself was marred with controversy because not everyone supported it, and there may be significant opposition from various political factions and civil society groups that question its validity. 

Moreover, the legitimacy of the interim government and its authority to sign the agreement may come under scrutiny. There could be significant pressure on the RSP, considering it rode to the election victory on the back of the GenZ movement.

Commanding a majority government has its pitfalls. Since the March election has provided an extraordinary mandate to the RSP, the opposition does not have enough numbers to restrain or hold the new government accountable. Moreover, the latest election was fought more on individual popularity than the party ideology, which raises the possibility of high-handedness by Balen Shah, whose celebrity more or less carried the election for the RSP.

Balen has no clear political ideology or affiliations, and he joined the RSP recently. He has some administrative experience as mayor, but he got criticism for driving out vendors by using strong police tactics in Kathmandu. During his tenure, he used bulldozers to demolish illegal structures and also stopped collecting garbage from Singha Durbar to enforce cleanliness in the city of Kathmandu. Though the mandate has made it easier for Nepal to reset its traditional fractional and unstable politics, it does not provide a magic wand to its troubles. The new government not only has to work toward the aspirations of people, especially GenZ, but it will also have to bring to justice those who engaged in mindless violence, rioting and vandalism during the September protests. 

However, after the 10-point agreement legitimized the GenZ protests, it raised questions about how proactively the government would prosecute those who perpetrated the arson and violence. There are also chances of retribution against officials who fired at unarmed protesters. The general election mandate will not only have an impact on the domestic politics but may also impact Nepal’s foreign policy and geopolitics.

Nepal’s role in South Asian geopolitics: From ‘buffer state’ to ‘vibrant bridge’

The outcome of the election could reshape Nepal’s diplomacy. It is expected that new actors in power would bring new energy and ideas to advance Nepal’s foreign policy objectives. However, the advent of new political forces in power could bring unpredictability and could be cause for concern for India and China. During the September protests, Nepal’s economy took a hit, and infrastructure worth billions was damaged, which has made it expedient for the new government to receive foreign aid and development grants from its partners. 

Therefore, the RSP government will need to chart out a workable diplomatic plan to balance its relationship with India and China.

Political stability in Nepal will foster economic development, usher in social stability, and maintain law and order, which will directly impact India’s open border. India has long been Nepal’s development partner. Recognizing this, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has welcomed the victories of RSP leaders Shah and Lamichhane. Modi spoke with them over the phone and underlined India’s willingness to work with the new government. It is expected that the RSP will not lose the balancing diplomacy of Nepal in favor of one partner over another. Its election manifesto provides some insights into its foreign policy objectives. 

In its election manifesto, RSP stated that it wants to reposition Nepal from a “buffer state” to a “vibrant bridge” between India and China. However, this is not a new objective. Earlier KP Sharma Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal had the same objective of repositioning Nepal’s role, albeit without any success.  

Moreover, the old irritants between the India-Nepal relationship are likely to continue. The RSP has consistently demanded a firm Nepali stance on Kalapani, Lipulekh, and Limpiyadhura, citing historical treaties and rejecting foreign activities without consent. Their victory, which emphasizes sovereignty and anti-corruption, could intensify pressure on India for border talks amid the RSP’s push for strategic autonomy. The nationalistic posture of Balen Shah on issues such as “Greater Nepal” could be another irritant in the relationship. 

In 2023, after India installed a mural of “Akhand Bharat” (a Greater India)—encompassing many of its neighbors—Shah hung a “Greater Nepal” map in his office, including territories that once belonged to Nepal but now lie within India’s borders. His supporters hailed the move as an assertive counter to foreign dominance. 

However, as a prime minister, he will need to be more flexible while dealing with a bigger power. The confrontationist attitude might do more harm than good, as it could jeopardize crucial trade agreements and diplomatic relations that are essential for Nepal's development. Since Nepal needs India for its development and trade, the RSP government will need to reach an understanding with India without compromising Nepal’s sovereignty.

At the same time, it is hoped that the incoming government will prioritize Nepal’s relationship with India, as it remains a major source of Nepal’s imports and facilitates Nepal’s exports to other countries through its ports, airports and waterways. Unlike the 2015 blockade that raised the price of energy in Nepal, India has already built a petroleum pipeline that will provide an uninterrupted supply to its neighbors. Amid uncertainty in the oil market, India would remain the main supplier with an agreement to supply 1,000 metric tonnes of LNG in the next five years. 

Nepal-India ties will not be limited to the ‘Roti-Beti’ relationship but will be multidimensional, encompassing trade, transit, energy and investment, which will generate jobs for Nepalis. India contributes one-third of Nepal’s investment, and a stable policy would boost investor confidence. Issues like the unresolved border issue would be a major challenge, as the pressure to resolve the dispute would be high.

Unlike India, Nepal’s relationship with its northern neighbor, China, faces distinctive challenges directly linked to the recent GenZ uprising. The corruption issues surrounding Pokhara International Airport could create minor disturbances in Nepal-China relations, especially since GenZ protested against rampant corruption in the country, making this a sensitive issue for any government. 

The perception of the RSP government shielding corrupt officials raises concerns about transparency and accountability in governance. This might also bring scrutiny to other Chinese projects and the rising debt for not going ahead with the stalled projects, as Nepal needs investment to create more jobs. Balen Shah removed a Chinese infrastructure project, Damak Industrial Park in Jhapa, which was closer to India’s Siliguri corridor, from the manifesto—a cautious move, one could say, due to corruption issues and India’s concerns. China’s interest in Nepal is also shaped by concerns over Tibetan activism, Western security penetration, and Indian influence. It remains to be seen how the RSP will address these concerns.

Nonetheless, China is an important development partner of Nepal. Earlier, It  had exhibited its interest in investing in Nepal’s hydropower sector, even though it had to withdraw from the West Seti Hydropower Project due to cost escalations. 

While political turnover in Kathmandu may alter individual relationships, Beijing’s diversified channels allow it to adapt. Therefore, this does not necessarily weaken China’s influence on Nepal’s politics—it redistributes it.

Recently, the United States has emerged as another major player in Nepal. Nepal has again become strategically sensitive for Washington, DC, as the US has committed nearly $550m to the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) for spending on a power transmission network and highway projects. The US views Nepal through the lens of democratic resilience and Indo-Pacific Strategy. 

US officials have emphasized electoral integrity and institutional support while warning against predatory financing models that compromise sovereignty. The MCC commitment signals sustained US engagement even amid competing global priorities. The US offers Nepal a partnership model that reinforces rather than constrains its autonomy, giving Nepal the opportunity to continue diversifying its external partnerships. However, India and China would not want the presence of the US in Nepal. 

China has already raised concerns over the MCC funding. The RSP government in Nepal would need to do careful balancing so as not to irk its neighbors, yet it would receive meaningful aid from the US. China views the US’s investment in the MCC Project, which funds connectivity and energy projects, as a challenge to China’s BRI.

Thus, the Balen Shah-led RSP government in Nepal has got the mandate to make meaningful changes and put Nepal on the development path. It also has the chance to relook at its foreign policy, seek new development partners, and strengthen its existing partnerships. However, it has to tread cautiously and balance the relations between competing powers, such as India and China, without inviting any ire from them. 

It will be a major challenge for the incoming government to balance the interests of its neighbors and ensure that Nepal’s own developmental aspirations are not caught up in geopolitics. India needs to acknowledge the political transformation in Nepal, which promises reforms through youth participation in politics. Both India and China need a fresh approach to deal with a government that represents a new political class and a leadership that represents the youth.

The National Planning Commission (NPC) has proposed a slew of relief measures and financial incentives to support the reconstruction of private infrastructure damaged during the GenZ protests in September last year.

As per a detailed action plan prepared by the commission, all reconstruction works will be completed within three years. 

The total damage sustained by the private sector has been estimated at Rs 33.54bn. This includes losses suffered by business establishments (Rs 27.49bn) and private homes (Rs 6.05bn). An insurance claim of Rs 23bn has been made for losses incurred by the private sector.

The NPC has proposed 10 types of facilities for the private sector to assist in reconstruction or renovation of infrastructure damaged during the protests. It has suggested that local governments waive off building drawing approval fees for rebuilding damaged private structures. Likewise, it has called for property tax exemptions for up to three years for affected private businesses, depending on the extent of damage.

To ease financial stress on the private sector, the NPC has urged the government to make necessary arrangements for immediate disbursement of insurance claims for insured properties. If insurance companies are facing problems in disbursements due to liquidity shortages, the NPC has proposed the government to provide businesses short-term loans at concessional interest rates.

Similarly, NPC has urged provincial governments to waive off vehicle taxes when deregistering vehicles that were completely destroyed during the protests.

For businesses struggling with liquidity, the commission has recommended restructuring their existing loans. It has proposed allowing companies whose working capital assets were fully damaged to convert their loans into installment-based financing upon request. These restructured loans could retain their existing classification status until the end of the current fiscal timeline, providing relief from immediate financial penalties, NPC added. In addition, the NPC has called on the government to extend the deadline for loan rescheduling and restructuring for affected businesses until mid-July 2026. 

The NPC has also proposed concessional lending for reconstruction. Borrowers seeking loans to rebuild homes, commercial buildings or other physical assets could access credit at a fixed interest rate capped at a base rate plus a premium of just 0.5 percent for up to five years.

Similarly, individuals, who suffered losses while inside public offices during the protests, would be provided compensation for damage to private vehicles, mobile phones, laptops and clothing that claims of such losses are supported by official police documentation. Concerned District Administration Offices would be responsible for distributing relief amounting to up to 25 percent of the total loss to such individuals.

Meanwhile, the NPC has estimated that a total of Rs 36.3bn will be required for reconstruction and management of damages on public property across all three tiers of government. Of this, the federal government will bear the largest share at Rs 24.69bn, followed by Rs 3.74bn by provincial governments and Rs 7.86bn by local levels.

According to the NPC, Rs 19.98bn will be needed for repair and reconstruction of buildings, Rs 6.16bn for procurement of vehicles, and Rs 10.15bn for recovery of other assets.

In terms of annual spending, NPC has said that the federal government may have to allocate Rs 4.34bn in the current fiscal year and Rs 10.17bn each in the following two years. Similarly, provincial governments would require Rs 810m this year and Rs 1.46bn annually for the next two years, while local governments are projected to spend Rs 1.42bn this year and Rs 3.21bn annually over the next two years.

To arrange resources for reconstruction, the NPC has advised the government to cut small, fragmented projects that do not yield immediate results. It has also recommended fully implementing the policy of not undertaking infrastructure projects costing less than Rs 30m at the federal level. The NPC has said that such projects could be transferred to lower tiers of government through conditional grants. It has also suggested discontinuing smaller-scale programs funded through conditional grants.

As the globe observes the International Day for Glaciers on March 21, the timing seems more like a warning than a celebration. From the peaks, the alarm is already beginning to trickle down. The UN's creation of this day in the second year of the Decadal Action for Cryospheric Science (2025-2034) represents a shift in our understanding of the high-altitude glaciers and snowpacks that support more than a billion people in South Asia. Our cryosphere is melting due to human-caused warming, making it a ticking time bomb rather than a static landscape. Temperatures in the Hindu Kush Himalayas are rising 0.3°C to 0.7°C more quickly than the global average. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), which pose a direct threat to the "Third Pole," are being fueled by this quick thaw. As we battle to save these crucial "water towers," Nepal's glacial landscapes must act as both a global laboratory for climate science and the front line for survival over the course of the next ten years.

Understanding the GLOF threat

Researchers at ICIMOD estimate that Nepal's glacier lakes currently make up a staggering 2.6% to 3.6% of the nation's total area, or about 3,252 unique lakes. However, they are the epicenters of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), not merely immobile masses of water. Thermal expansion causes glacial lakes to grow and press against their natural rock and ice as temperatures rise. The science underlying GLOF is that this produces a volatile mixture of hydro-meteorological elements that can cause a catastrophic eruption. The terrain is pushed to a critical threshold for a disastrous Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) by this pressure build-up and erratic weather patterns.

The moraine dams are weakened structurally by the freeze-thaw cycles, and these delicate structures are further destabilized by rising sediment loads. These loose rock "walls" that contain the water, are known as moraine dams. As "living laboratories," these summits record a significant change in the climate. Heavy sediment loads are gradually compromising the structural integrity of these moraine dams, posing a concern that needs immediate action and attention.

Crisis beyond the Peaks

The statistics from ICIMOD and the IPCC are staggering. The central and eastern Himalayas lost around 30% of their snow cover in just three decades, according to recent research, including findings published in The Cryosphere (2026). By the end of the century, up to 80% of the glacier volume may disappear if we continue to follow the same path. What we are witnessing is not just a transformation of the landscape, but a fundamental disruption of the lifelines for a quarter of the world's population because these glacial systems are the primary water source for more than two billion people downstream. Scientists now refer to GLOF events as "cascading hazards," in which a glacier's initial collapse triggers a series of environmental and societal disasters, from immediate floods to long-term water shortages for entire nations.

Why our old maps no longer work?

The latest disasters in Rasuwagadhi (2025) and Thame (2024) have essentially destroyed our conventional risk models. Analyst used historical data to forecast floods for many years, but the mountains are no longer adhering to the previous guidelines. With the frozen earth thawing by up to 23 centimeters annually, scientists now warn that permafrost degradation is undermining the Himalayas' basic foundations. This new reality is exemplified by the Thame Valley disaster of 2024. Over 450,000 cubic meters of debris-filled water were spilled when a rock avalanche struck the Thyanbo glacier lake. The 2025 surge in Rasuwagadhi, which occurred just a year later, demonstrated that these occurrences are no longer rare. These consecutive tragedies demonstrate that the frequency and magnitude of today's mountain calamities cannot be predicted by our outdated models. The peaks are getting more unpredictable, and a single crumbling slope can now cause a catastrophe, as evidenced by the Upper Mustang floods and the ISRO satellite data on the Dharali disaster.

People in the Shadow

As our old maps of the mountains fail, the social fabric of the communities living there is also being stretched to its limit. While technical teams from NDRRMA and ICIMOD have been on the ground in Thame to map physical hazards, the SathSathai Summiter’s Summit has revealed a parallel socioeconomic crisis. Through "witness accounts" from veteran climbers like Mingma David Sherpa and Sheikha Asma Al Thani, the dialogue is finally shifting from satellite imagery to the lived experiences of those whose lives depend on the ice.  They describe a landscape that is no longer recognizable, documenting measurable changes in ice formation and route stability that no map can fully capture. These testimonies are echoed by local elderly grandmothers like Chyoying Doma, who describe the "auditory and visual" shifts in the mountains, from the changing sounds of moving glaciers to the loss of traditional seasonal markers once used for agricultural planning.

  As our field surveys from April 2025 demonstrate, this catastrophe is also strongly gendered and very intimate. Due to shifting crop cycles, temperature and precipitation, people now suffer from climate-related health problems. Especially, women in the Thame Valley are now bearing an increased "multiple burden" from agricultural workloads to detrimental reproductive health. Community interviews also show that psychological trauma is on the rise, even beyond the physical work. The ongoing uncertainty of snowfall, economic instability, and the shadow of erratic moraine dams are all contributing factors to residents' elevated stress levels. We can get a complete picture of how climate change in the Himalayas is a fight for the existence and dignity of those on the front lines rather than merely an environmental study by combining the technical and social findings.

The Gap between the Talk and the Truth

The 2025 summit may have stopped in rhetoric, despite the fact that high-level dialogues like the Sagarmatha Sambaad were intended to bridge mountain reality with global policy. Critics point out that the world is far from the promised climate justice because these debates often fail to provide systemic solutions. This leads to a serious environmental injustice, although Nepal contributes only 0.08% of the world's emissions, people suffer the consequences of a disaster that they did not cause. Even though the World Bank's $9.4 million payment in late 2025 was a welcome gesture of justice, it is still tiny in comparison to the rising human cost and the predatory power of unchecked mountain tourism.

This is not just an environmental study, but a cycle of increasing poverty for vulnerable populations, such as the elderly, porters, and subsistence farmers. In valleys like Thame, women are left to shoulder a "multiple burden," managing collapsing agricultural cycles and worsening reproductive health issues under great stress, as men migrate for employment. This calamity is also deeply gendered. Those with the fewest resources and the greatest family duties become more helpless as the glaciers disappear, their traditional means of subsistence and physical well-being vanishing along with the ice.

​​​​​From monitoring to survival

Adaptation is made possible by current scientific monitoring, which uses ground-based data and satellite-based remote sensing to enable "non-structural" interventions like mobile-based early notifications. However, local action must take over as international diplomacy falters. If high-level meetings do not lead to immediate adaptation on the ground, they are worthless. Local Adaptation Plans (LAPA) must be prioritized in order to overcome administrative obstacles, even though ICIMOD's research provide the essential maps to forecast disasters.

This entails concentrating on the finance that instantly reaches communities, empowering the frontline by giving women and indigenous groups priority, and a clever defense that blends engineering, like the Tsho Rolpa spillways along with community-led warnings. In the end, "climate justice" is not a catchphrase, it rather refers to the financial and material resources that enable people who live under the shadow of the glaciers to protect their lives and dignity.

Connecting Data and People

The second year of the International Year of Glacier Preservation provides a crucial temporal framework for documenting the accelerating environmental and social shifts in Nepal's mountain regions. GLOF episodes are no longer isolated incidents. Scientific evidence confirms they are symptoms of a systemic collapse affecting water security and social stability across the Hindu Kush Himalayas. Nepal’s experience proves that research must lead to response, science alone cannot save a village without the equity of direct funding and local empowerment. As environmental changes surpass natural variability, the world must match Nepal’s frontline resilience with a radical commitment to lowering emissions and halting this cryospheric collapse.

It has been raining in Kathmandu for a while. The rainy weather is coupled with storms.

The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology stated that  the Kathmandu Valley is witnessing rain with storms for over an hour. 

Meteorologist Bibhuti Pokharel said the current weather is likely to intensify further. 

With the storms, the electricity and telephone cables may be snapped, poles and trees uprooted, and corrugated zinc roofs of shelters and houses blown away, she reminded, alerting over the adversity that requires adequate attention and precaution.

The weather service has appealed to everyone to stay in safe places and avoid travel during such adversity.

The guardians and related bodies are also urged to take special care of children as the hostile weather starts at a time the schools are over.