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It has been nearly two weeks since former King Gyanendra Shah re-emerged into the spotlight of national politics. His resurgence has sparked a wave of criticism and aggressive rhetoric from leaders of major political parties, including former prime ministers, who have resorted to harsh and uncivil language to discredit him. Meanwhile, some politicians have taken to the streets to counter potential royalist protests in the Kathmandu Valley.

On March 9, approximately 13,000 people escorted Shah from the airport to his private residence, marking a significant show of support. Since then, two distinct narratives have emerged in national politics. First, the former king appears to be attempting to establish a unified command to launch Kathmandu-centric protests, appointing Nava Raj Subedi, a veteran of the Panchayat era, to lead the campaign. However, despite Subedi’s broad acceptance, pro-monarchy forces have refused to rally under his leadership. Subedi, previously associated with the Rastriya Prajatantra Party, resigned from his position to take on this new role.

Shah’s immediate challenge is to unite all monarchy supporters under a single banner. Encouraged by the March 9 turnout, he is preparing to tour other parts of the country to garner further support for the monarchy. However, there are indications that the government may restrict his activities if he becomes more politically active, potentially infringing on his constitutional right to free movement.

On the other hand, major political parties are mobilizing their cadres to demonstrate their strength in the streets. The CPN-UML has been engaged in serious deliberations about Gyanendra’s plans to return to power, with senior leaders discussing the potential backing of royalist forces by external actors. The CPN (Maoist Center) and other fringe parties are also preparing to counter royalist movements, signaling that Kathmandu is likely to witness increased protests in the coming days. Nepal’s highly politicized civil society has aligned with mainstream political parties to oppose any potential revival of the monarchy.

Amidst this political tension, pro-monarchy groups have spread misinformation suggesting that the Nepali Army supports the restoration of the monarchy. In response, the army has reaffirmed its commitment to safeguarding Nepal’s independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national unity in accordance with the constitution. The army’s statement comes amid growing calls from royalist factions for the military to play a role in reinstating the monarchy.

There are also murmurs within political and diplomatic circles that certain forces are fueling pro-monarchy protests not to restore the king but to destabilize Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s government. Analysts suggest that increased street protests could pave the way for a national unity government, potentially forcing Oli to step down. Reports indicate that Nepali Congress (NC) and Maoist leaders are already discussing the formation of such a government, arguing that only a strong administration can preserve the current political system. Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal is reportedly working to remove Oli from power.

Meanwhile, the coalition government formed by the NC and UML had pledged to amend the constitution, but progress has stalled. However, the NC has taken some steps in this direction. The party’s Professional and Intellectual Department conducted consultations across all seven provinces on constitutional amendments and submitted its report to Party President Sher Bahadur Deuba. The report recommends declaring Nepal a Hindu state in the constitution’s preamble, a move that contradicts the party’s current stance. While support for a Hindu state is growing within the party, there is no significant backing for the monarchy. The report also suggests reducing administrative costs associated with the federal structure, ensuring 50 percent representation of women in state mechanisms, and prioritizing geographical factors over population in electoral constituency delimitation, including reducing the number of constituencies.

In international developments, Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba visited New Delhi to participate in the Raisina Dialogue, where she held bilateral talks with foreign ministers from several countries, including India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. Nepal is preparing to invite Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the Sagarmatha Dialogue, and Deuba was expected to extend the invitation during her visit. The Nepali government is focused on attracting high-level dignitaries from both India and China.

In another development, the United States has reaffirmed its commitment to strengthening its partnership with Nepal. A State Department spokesperson stated, “While programs that do not align with American interests have been terminated, the United States remains committed to strengthening its partnership with the Government of Nepal.” The spokesperson emphasized that the US is dedicated to supporting Nepal’s sovereignty by bolstering democratic resilience and promoting economic opportunities. However, negotiations between Nepal and the US have yet to resume following the withdrawal of US support. Additionally, Nepal’s embassy in Washington remains vacant, as Ambassador Lok Darshan Regmi has yet to assume office five months after his appointment. Experts suggest that due to Nepal’s strategic geopolitical location, the Trump administration is likely to continue its aid to counterbalance the influence of India and China.

On the economic front, Nepal’s public debt has increased by 9.93 percent to Rs 2,676.03bn over the first eight months of the current fiscal year, according to the Public Debt Management Office (PDMO). This represents an increase of Rs 241.93bn since mid-July 2023.

There is some positive news as well. Policy reforms introduced by the government through ordinances are beginning to yield results. Nepal recorded its highest foreign investment commitments in the current fiscal year during the eighth month (mid-February to mid-March), with the Department of Industry approving Rs 17.79bn for 40 projects. These projects are expected to create 833 new jobs, bringing the total foreign investment commitments for the fiscal year to Rs 44.66bn across 427 projects. A recent study by the department identified policy shortcomings as the primary obstacle to higher foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, prompting the government to address these issues through recent ordinances.

In Nepal-China relations, Sichuan Airlines has launched its first international flight to Pokhara International Airport under regular commercial operations. Since its inauguration in January 2023, the airport has struggled financially, and the weekly flights by Sichuan Airlines are expected to provide some relief. Additionally, a business delegation from Sichuan has reached agreements with Pokhara, potentially fostering further economic collaboration.

The United States has reaffirmed its commitment to strengthening its partnership with the Government of Nepal.

 In response to inquiries from ApEx, a State Department spokesperson stated, “While programs that do not align with American interests have been terminated, the United States remains committed to strengthening its partnership with the Government of Nepal.”

Building on 77 years of successful collaboration, the United States is dedicated to supporting Nepal’s sovereignty by bolstering democratic resilience and promoting economic opportunities, the spokesperson added. When asked about the list of canceled projects under the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the spokesperson noted, “The US Government's review of all foreign assistance is ongoing.”

Recently, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) had terminated 83 percent of USAID-run programs globally, amounting to the cancellation of 5,200 projects. While reports suggest that dozens of USAID-funded projects in Nepal have also been affected, there has been no official confirmation. Officials indicate that not only are ongoing projects at risk, but several American institutions in Nepal are also on the verge of closure. Regarding specific projects, the spokesperson said, “We do not have additional information to share on specific program awards at this time.”

On March 18, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Arzu Rana Deuba, met with Ricky Gill, Special Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs and National Security Council Senior Director for South and Central Asia, on the sidelines of the Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi. Gill assured Minister Deuba that the US would continue to support Nepal. “Gill and I also discussed Nepal-US ties, which are rooted in shared democratic and human rights values,” Rana said. “I am confident that our cooperation will continue to grow over the years.”

In a related development, a federal judge ruled that the dismantling of USAID likely violated the US Constitution. The court order requires the Trump Administration to restore email and computer access to all USAID employees, including those placed on administrative leave.

In his verdict, Judge Theodore Chung wrote, “The court finds that defendants’ actions to shut down USAID on an accelerated basis, including the apparent decision to permanently close USAID headquarters without the approval of a duly appointed USAID office, likely violated the United States Constitution in multiple ways.”

Just two weeks ago, a palpable tension existed between Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and CPN (Maoist Center) Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal. However, they have now begun to align in defense of the 2015 constitution, citing an increasing threat from pro-monarchy forces. Despite this newfound unity, critics argue that the poor governance and misrule under Dahal’s leadership have inadvertently strengthened the monarchy's resurgence. In response, both ruling and opposition parties are joining forces to counter the growing influence of pro-monarchy factions. Prime Minister Oli and Dahal have adopted a more conciliatory approach toward each other in light of these developments.

As pro-monarchy forces work to establish a unified front to mobilize supporters, mainstream political parties are preparing to rally their own cadres to safeguard the current federal republican system. Leaders from major political parties, with the exception of the Nepali Congress (NC), have publicly accused former King Gyanendra Shah of attempting a comeback with external backing, though they have not provided detailed evidence to support these claims.

During a recent CPN-UML internal meeting, senior leaders expressed concerns that Shah is engaging in destabilizing activities under the influence of certain powers. They emphasized the need for republican forces to unite despite their differences. Some leaders have even proposed the idea of a national unity government—a vaguely defined concept that has remained unrealized since 2008—to counter potential protests by royalist forces. While leaders from the NC and Maoist Center have discussed this possibility, it is unlikely to materialize soon. Maoist Chairman Dahal has publicly denied any ongoing discussions about his party joining the government, stating that while they are prepared to offer solutions in the event of a crisis, no such talks are currently taking place.

Both pro-monarchy forces and mainstream political parties are gearing up for potential street protests, signaling that Kathmandu may soon witness significant demonstrations. The government is expected to face challenges in managing the situation. The Samajbadi Morcha (Socialist Front), a coalition of communist parties including the Maoist Center, CPN (Unified Socialist) and two smaller factions, is planning a mass demonstration on March 19. Similarly, the ruling UML is preparing to mobilize millions of its cadres to defend the republican system.

Pro-monarchy groups have been staging protests for some time, but recent efforts suggest a push for greater unity. Navaraj Subedi, a leader from the Panchayat era, has launched a campaign titled the “People’s Movement Committee for the Restoration of Monarchy.” Former King Shah has reportedly chosen Subedi as a unifying figure to bridge divides among pro-monarchist factions. However, it remains uncertain whether parties like the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and Rastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal will fully unite under this banner. RPP Chair Rajendra Lingden has asserted that his party should lead the movement, given its longstanding advocacy for the monarchy. Subedi has issued a public appeal for support, outlining three key demands: the restoration of the monarchy, the reinstatement of Nepal as a Hindu state and the abolition of federal structures.

Despite these efforts, Shah faces challenges in uniting all pro-monarchy supporters under a single command. For instance, while RPP Chair Lingden has expressed support for pro-monarchy campaigns, he has distanced his party from the Subedi-led committee. Nevertheless, senior RPP members Rabindra Mishra and Dhawal Shumsher Rana have joined the mobilization committee.

Leaders close to the former king describe this as a critical moment and possibly his final attempt to gauge public support for a return to the throne. Unlike previous fragmented efforts, this marks the first time Shah has taken a proactive role in forming a unified structure under Subedi's leadership. According to sources close to the former king, he believes this is an opportune time to rally public backing, as future opportunities may be limited. However, the success of this endeavor remains uncertain, given the internal divisions among pro-monarchy factions and the broader political landscape.

On March 9, Tribhuvan International Airport witnessed a historic gathering as thousands of supporters welcomed former King Gyanendra Shah upon his return from Pokhara. The crowd, estimated at 14,000 by police, escorted the former King to his private residence, Nirmal Niwas, in a show of solidarity for the monarchy. Organized by pro-monarchist parties like the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (led by Rajendra Lingden) and Rastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal (led by Kamal Thapa), alongside Hindu outfits and businessman Durga Prasai, the event marked one of the largest monarchist demonstrations in recent years. Despite a lack of coordination among organizers, the turnout has energized monarchist forces, who are now planning more protests to push for the restoration of a ceremonial monarchy.

The rally was not just a show of support for the former King but also a reflection of growing dissatisfaction with the current political system. Many participants expressed frustration with the failure of political parties to address issues like corruption, unemployment, and poor governance. The monarchist movement, though fragmented, has gained momentum in recent years, with significant demonstrations in 2021 and 2023 drawing considerable attention from both domestic political parties and the international community. However, these protests have lacked a unified structure or leadership, with deep divisions among various groups hindering the emergence of a cohesive movement.

Interestingly, the protests have inadvertently united Nepal’s major political parties, who are now preparing counter-demonstrations to defend the republican system. Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli has warned against any attempts to undermine the constitutional setup, while CPN (Maoist Center) Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal is leading efforts to counter the royalist movement. Dahal has canceled all party programs to focus on organizing a Kathmandu-centric movement to protect the current republican system. The largest party, Nepali Congress, however, has not taken the protests seriously, with some members arguing that the growing support for monarchy reflects public dissatisfaction with the failure of political parties to deliver on their promises.

Meanwhile, Kulman Ghising, the managing director of Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA), continues to dominate headlines. Despite facing scrutiny from the Energy Ministry and political pressure, Ghising remains a beloved figure for his role in ending Nepal’s chronic load-shedding crisis. This week, Energy Minister Deepak Khadka credited India for resolving the power crisis, downplaying Ghising’s contributions. However, Nepali Congress General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa defended Ghising, emphasizing his impending retirement and the public’s overwhelming support for him. With Ghising’s popularity intact, the government appears hesitant to take any drastic action against him.

Ghising’s tenure at NEA has been marked by significant achievements, including the reduction of load-shedding hours and the improvement of the country’s power distribution system. His efforts have earned him widespread acclaim, but they have also made him a target for political maneuvering. During the recent elections, the CPN (Maoist Center) used Ghising’s achievements as a campaign tool, further complicating his position. Despite the challenges, Ghising’s legacy as a transformative leader in Nepal’s energy sector remains secure.

In another significant development, the cancellation of dozens of USAID-funded projects has sent shockwaves through Nepal’s development sectors, including health, education, agriculture, and democracy. The government is scrambling to address the gap, but political leadership remains silent on the issue. While India and China may step in to fill the void, their support is unlikely to fully compensate for the loss of US aid. With the UK also cutting foreign aid and Europe prioritizing defense spending, Nepal faces an uphill battle to secure alternative resources. As the US shifts its focus to the Indo-Pacific region, Nepal may soon initiate talks to revive critical projects.

The cancellation of USAID projects has raised concerns about the future of Nepal’s development initiatives. Many of these projects were aimed at improving healthcare, education, and agricultural productivity, and their sudden termination has left a significant void. Government officials have started consultations on how to address the gap, but the lack of a clear strategy has left many stakeholders worried. The situation is further complicated by the geopolitical dynamics in the region, with India and China viewing the US presence in Nepal with suspicion.

On the domestic front, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, often criticized for neglecting provincial structures, is now engaging directly with provincial assemblies. This week, he addressed assemblies in Lumbini, Far-West, and Karnali, signaling a renewed commitment to federalism. Whether this marks a genuine shift in policy or a political maneuver remains to be seen. Oli’s engagement with provincial structures comes at a time when there is growing discontent with the central government’s handling of federalism. Many provincial leaders have accused the central government of undermining their authority and failing to allocate adequate resources.

Oli’s outreach to provincial assemblies is seen as an attempt to address these concerns and strengthen the federal structure. However, critics argue that his efforts are too little, too late, and that more concrete actions are needed to ensure the success of federalism in Nepal. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Oli’s engagement with provincial structures will lead to meaningful change or remain a symbolic gesture.

In the realm of diplomacy, Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba is currently in India, where she is participating in the prestigious Raisina Dialogue. Alongside her diplomatic engagements, Deuba is expected to meet Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and extend an invitation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the upcoming Sagarmatha Dialogue in Kathmandu. The Oli government is keen to strengthen ties with India, but an official invitation for PM Oli to visit India is still pending. As both nations explore the possibility of high-level visits, Nepal’s diplomatic efforts remain in the spotlight.

The Sagarmatha Dialogue, scheduled for May 16-18, is expected to bring together top leaders from across the region to discuss issues of mutual interest. The event is seen as an opportunity for Nepal to showcase its diplomatic prowess and strengthen its ties with neighboring countries. However, the success of the dialogue will depend on the participation of key leaders, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Eight Madhes-based parties are working to form an alliance to push for the unfulfilled demands of the Madhesi and Tharu communities. Over the past few days, these parties have been meeting regularly to finalize the alliance's structure, code of conduct and leadership. They are also reviewing past agreements with the government, assessing what has been addressed and what remains pending. However, there is a broad agreement that the alliance should not have "Madhes" in its name to present itself as a national political force rather than a regional one.

These parties have clarified that their coalition is not anti-government. The discussions involve the Janata Samajbadi Party, Janamat Party, Janata Samajbadi Nepal, Nagarik Unmukti Party, Loktantrik Samajbadi Party, Rastriya Mukti Party Nepal, Janata Pragatishil and Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party. Once a dominant force in Nepal’s first Constituent Assembly (CA), Madhes-based parties have gradually lost influence in recent years.

Madhes-based parties opposed the 2015 constitution, which led to its first amendment in 2016, addressing some of their demands. However, after the 2017 local elections, these parties largely abandoned their initial agenda, prioritizing power instead. Now, they are paying close attention to constitutional amendment discussions, especially remarks by major party leaders suggesting that Banke and Bardiya be incorporated into Karnali province—a proposal strongly opposed by Madhesi and Tharu leaders.

Resham Lal Chaudhary, coordinator of Nagarik Unmukti Party, stated that a task force has been formed to identify common concerns, review the implementation of past agreements and highlight unresolved issues. The timing of this effort coincides with ruling parties' plans to amend the constitution, which could directly impact Madhesi and Tharu representation. For instance, the government aims to increase electoral thresholds and modify the current electoral system, changes that Madhes-based parties view with skepticism.

A key demand remains the public release of a report prepared by a commission constituted under former Supreme Court Justice Girish Chandra Lal, which investigated human rights violations during the 2015-16 Madhesi uprising. Madhes-based leaders argue that the government’s failure to make this report public has denied justice to victims, particularly in the Tharu community.

Additionally, Madhes-based parties are aligning with other identity-based movements in Nepal. They have expressed solidarity with protests against a proposed cable car project in Pathibhara, a site known as Mukkumlung in Kirati scriptures. During a solidarity event, Rajendra Mahato, leader of Rastriya Mukti Party Nepal, urged the government to address the demands of Limbuwan activists, reaffirming his party’s support for their cause.

The renewed push for Madhes unity comes as Nepal’s major parties prepare for constitutional amendments, new political forces emerge and local elections approach. In the 2022 federal elections, the strength of Madhes-based parties declined significantly. Upendra Yadav’s Janata Samajbadi Party and CK Raut’s Janamat Party each secured six seats, while Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal won five, Loktantrik Samajbadi Party four and Nagarik Unmukti Party four.

Despite ongoing discussions, it remains uncertain whether Madhes-based parties will succeed in forming an alliance, let alone achieving party unification. Previous attempts have failed due to leadership disputes. Moreover, these parties often align with major national parties—Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center)—to secure electoral victories rather than uniting among themselves. Many in Madhes are disillusioned with their leadership, seeing them as power-hungry rather than committed to fulfilling their promises.

Should CPN (Maoist Center) Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s efforts to break the NC-UML coalition government falter, he may extend support to Madhesi and Janajati demands. If the coalition remains intact until the 2027 elections, an alliance between Maoist, Madhesi and Janajati forces could emerge. However, whether this will translate into lasting political gains for Madhes-based parties remains to be seen.

By all accounts, the country is not on the right path. Nepal is facing a multitude of challenges that require immediate and concerted efforts to address. From agriculture and corruption to climate change and political instability, the issues are deeply interconnected. Without urgent action, the country risks further decline, with long-term consequences for its economy, society, and democracy. To support my argument, I have identified the 10 major problems Nepal is facing today.

Agriculture

I do not want to rely on government statistics, but based on my visits to Karnali, Sudurpashchim and areas surrounding the Kathmandu valley, I can say that Nepal’s agricultural sector is witnessing an alarming decline, with decreasing productivity. On one hand, there is a lack of youth willing to work in agriculture; on the other, a small group of local politicians and government officials are hijacking government subsidies, sidelining genuine farmers. One must be an active member of a political party to receive fertilizer and seed subsidies. Additionally, some people are forging fake agricultural documents to siphon funds that never reach the farmers. Market access for local farmers remains a major issue. Fertile agricultural lands are dangerously becoming barren, and their visible impact will be evident within the next 10 years.

Corruption

For a long time, everyone has been saying that corruption is everywhere, so this issue may seem redundant. However, believe me, it has reached an alarming level, especially at the local level. Corruption has severely compromised the quality of infrastructure projects. There is a dangerous nexus between politicians, government officials and contractors. For instance, I have personally witnessed cases where less than 30 percent of the allocated budget is actually spent on infrastructure projects. Corruption exists even in small health posts—people do not receive the free government-provided medicines because they are diverted to private pharmacies for profit. Corruption has permeated every level of budget allocation and project implementation.

Economy

Government indicators may suggest a gradual economic recovery, as it is also a necessity for the government to manipulate economic data to show progress. For example, the current government has claimed improvements compared to the previous administration. However, the overall sentiment in society clearly indicates that the economy is struggling. Business owners are under severe stress. Visit any small shop, and you will hear about the difficulties they face. People are hesitant to start new businesses due to high loan risks. Even top businesspeople are gradually losing confidence in the national economy. Whether you talk to a small tea shop owner or a leading business figure, optimism is hard to find.

Climate change

Again, this may not sound like a new issue because everyone is talking about it, but Nepal is facing a severe crisis due to climate change. Unfortunately, for our politicians, it is not a matter of urgency. But don’t just blame them—even US President Donald Trump called climate change a hoax. However, visit farms and talk to farmers, and you will feel its devastating effects firsthand. The September floods swept away agricultural lands around the Kathmandu valley. Over the past few months, prolonged droughts have seriously affected winter crops. In the coming years, both floods and droughts will continue to impact vital areas such as water availability, crop production, biodiversity and human settlements.

Misinformation and disinformation

This has emerged as one of the biggest risks to society. Social media platforms are filled with disinformation, and it is disheartening to see that people believe misinformation more readily than the facts. There is a low level of awareness about deepfake technology and how such content is created. This issue could lead to social unrest at any time. Politicians are aware of the spread of disinformation, yet there is no urgency to address it. Passing a few laws alone will not be enough; the government must launch a large-scale awareness campaign. Without it, disinformation could create security threats and other serious problems.

Youth migration

Every young person with a high school degree wants to go abroad. At college classrooms, I hear students discussing their plans to leave. In tea shops, I hear young people talking about how to gather funds to migrate. And in my home village in Kavre, I rarely see young people—most have already left. When I travel abroad, I find many Nepalis working and studying there. This trend does not need further explanation; its long-term economic impact will be severe, especially in the next decade.

Geopolitical tensions

Growing geopolitical tensions are gradually affecting Nepal. The Russia-Ukraine war has had economic and social repercussions here. Additionally, the escalating tensions between the US and China during Trump’s administration will not spare Nepal. Meanwhile, the growing influence of major global powers is increasing polarization within Nepali society. Our politicians are losing their ability to manage or leverage these global developments for the country’s benefit.

Political vacuum

Nepal currently has seven national political parties. Three major ones—Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, and CPN (Maoist Center)—united to promulgate the 2015 constitution. Superficially, it appears that these parties still dominate the political landscape. However, dissatisfaction is growing. More and more people are beginning to believe that traditional parties can no longer solve the country's problems, yet credible new political alternatives have not emerged. Even dedicated local-level cadres of major parties—except those who benefit directly—are considering changing their voting preferences in the next election. This has created a political vacuum at the local level. Which political force will fill this gap?

Pessimism

Nepalis are getting increasingly pessimistic about the country’s future. A majority believe conditions will worsen rather than improve. Many have lost hope that economic growth will create jobs and opportunities. This growing pessimism is contributing to rising mental health issues, which in turn are causing a surge in crimes.

Constitution

The 2015 constitution played a crucial role in maintaining peace, but it is now under threat. Anti-constitution forces are gaining momentum. Meanwhile, the commitment of political parties to the constitution is wavering. If the constitution and current system come under attack, the public is unlikely to rally to protect them because they feel the constitution has failed to improve their lives. If people do not safeguard the constitution, political instability could worsen at any time, potentially endangering democracy itself.

Jan 30, Bhaktapur

It is 7:30 in the morning. The sky is partly cloudy, but Kathmandu’s temperature is gradually rising as January nears its end. A man sits in the teashop, reading the Gorkhapatra national daily. He is eager to share a piece of news about a startup conference organized by the Nepali Congress at its headquarters in Sanepa. He sees it as a positive initiative by Nepal’s largest political party but criticizes the government’s failure to create a favorable environment for startups to flourish. While some startups are thriving, he says, others have stagnated due to a lack of market access and skilled workforce. The man, who does not identify himself, appears well-informed about the challenges startups face, including legal hurdles. However, the other patrons in the teashop show little interest in discussing the topic.

Soon, another man enters and abruptly shifts the conversation to politics. He brings up news that former President Bidya Devi Bhandari is preparing to re-enter active politics. A politically conscious man in the teashop immediately responds, mentioning that Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli has sent a clear message discouraging her return. This remark sparks interest among the tea drinkers. One of them asks, “How do you know Oli sent her a message?” The man cites a recent statement by CPN-UML General Secretary Pradeep Kumar Gyawali, who publicly remarked that it would be inappropriate for Bhandari to rejoin active politics. He speculates that Oli may have instructed Gyawali to make the statement. Of the seven people in the teashop, five agree that former presidents and vice presidents should not re-enter politics.

Another person adds that former Vice-president Nanda Kishor Pun is also preparing to return and has attended party meetings, but Maoist Center Chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal is hesitant to offer him a position. The discussion then shifts to the internal dynamics of the UML. One man claims that there is dissatisfaction within the party but that no one dares to speak up, leading some to push for Bhandari’s return. He notes that Gokul Banskota was the first UML leader to invite Bhandari to a party program in Kavre last year, but a rift has since developed between him and Oli. Others in the teashop mention Bhandari’s recent visits to Biratnagar and Pokhara, where she engaged extensively with party leaders and cadres.

The conversation naturally drifts toward international affairs, particularly American politics. Some express strong opinions about former US President Donald Trump’s decision to pause US aid through USAID. One person argues that halting aid is beneficial, as it will reduce Nepal’s dependency and force the government to take more responsibility. He adds that those employed in USAID projects may be unsettled by the decision. Another person interjects, criticizing the misuse of USAID funds, pointing to extravagant expenditures on five-star hotels and other unnecessary areas. The discussion then becomes disorganized, with various people sharing their views on illegal immigration. Someone remarks, “People have spent over Rs 10m to get to the US through traffickers. If they are deported, it will be a devastating blow to their families.” Another voice chimes in, stating, “Countries will never prosper through foreign grants.” Notably, there is little discussion about Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) Chairman Rabi Lamichhane—a stark contrast to the frequent debates about him in past weeks.

As the morning progresses, the teashop empties. I wait, hoping for new perspectives. Eventually, a man in his sixties enters, orders milk tea, and begins discussing the durability of the current government. He recalls predictions that the Oli government wouldn’t last long but points out the cordial relationship between Oli and Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba. He claims that the two leaders recently met and agreed to keep the coalition intact. “I think Prachanda’s efforts to topple this government will fail,” he states confidently. I ask, “So you believe this coalition will last?” He responds, “Khai, malai chai testai lagcha” (“Well, that’s what I think”). He then speculates that efforts are underway to unite all communist forces under Bhandari’s leadership and suggests that even Maoist Chairman Dahal has agreed to the plan. However, he suddenly grows uneasy, shifts the topic, and confesses, “Forget politics—I am suffering from multiple health issues. Who cares about us? I have a lot of money, but I’m not happy. Both my sons are abroad. They want me to join them in Australia, but I don’t want to leave. Who will take care of us here?”

Then, unexpectedly, he asks about my profession. This is the first time someone has questioned me directly since I started my teashop column. I answer honestly: “I am a journalist.” This marks the beginning of my uneasy moment. He launches into a tirade about journalism, accusing reporters of being irresponsible and spreading misinformation. “Tell me, why are all journalists against Rabi Lamichhane?” he demands. I try to explain the difference between journalistic and non-journalistic content, cautioning against misinformation and disinformation, but he remains unconvinced. Seeing that my argument is going nowhere, I steer the conversation toward Trump. This successfully diverts his focus, and he asserts, “Nepali people should understand that every politician prioritizes their own country’s interests, and that’s exactly what Trump is doing.”

He offers me a cup of tea, but I decline, having already had two. When I ask about his profession, he reveals that he once worked for a private company and now owns two houses—one in Kathmandu and another in Bhaktapur. Before I leave, he circles back to his criticism of the media, making unverified accusations against certain outlets. I choose to remain silent.

As I left the teashop, a question lingered in my mind: Why do people distrust mainstream media, yet readily consume unverified content elsewhere? Is it a lack of awareness, or are there genuine flaws in journalism today? I had no ready answer. 

This week was eventful for Nepal’s domestic and external affairs. As the winter session of Parliament begins on Jan 31, both ruling and opposition parties are busy strategizing. The ruling parties, primarily Nepali Congress and CPN-UML, have attempted to bridge their differences.

Some leaders of NC openly criticized the government's move to introduce ordinances, while ruling parties have been defending them. Although UML leaders strongly support the ordinances, some populist NC leaders object. NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba has instructed party lawmakers not to oppose the ordinances in Parliament, but some may defy him. The winter session is likely to witness heated exchanges between ruling and opposition parties, potentially affecting the lawmaking process.

Former President Bidya Devi Bhandari remains a topic of public discourse. She spent a week in Biratnagar seeking input from local UML leaders and cadres regarding her potential leadership of the party after KP Sharma Oli. Earlier, she had visited Pokhara, and upon her return, Oli held a lengthy meeting with her.

Interestingly, UML General Secretary Pradeep Kumar Gyawali stated that it would be inappropriate for Bhandari to rejoin active party politics. Speaking to reporters in Rupandehi on Wednesday, he emphasized that Bhandari should stay out of party affairs, adding that UML has not internally discussed her return. This highlights a potential conflict between Oli and Bhandari. Social media is abuzz with criticism of Bhandari’s political ambitions, with many arguing it would be inappropriate for her to return. UML leaders claim her residence in Chapali Height is gradually becoming a power center, as UML cadres frequently visit her. Meanwhile, Bhandari has been increasingly vocal about her political ambitions. Oli, displeased with her moves, has publicly stated that he will not tolerate factionalism within the party.

The government has introduced Nepal’s first Social Media Regulation Bill, drawing criticism from the media fraternity. The bill is expected to undergo significant public and parliamentary scrutiny. Senior NC leaders, including General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma, have voiced concerns, while the Federation of Nepalese Journalists has flagged certain provisions. Parliament is unlikely to pass the bill hastily and may refer it for further review. While social media regulation is necessary, balancing it with freedom of speech and expression remains a challenge. Governments worldwide are grappling with similar issues, but Nepal continues to make the mistake of drafting such bills without consulting stakeholders. Although Parliament has the power to amend or reject the bill, a more consultative approach would have improved its chances of passage.

In another development, Madhes-based parties are working towards forming a coalition to push their regional agenda. This week, eight Madhes-based parties established a task force to draft a concept note for their alliance, holding multiple meetings. Since 2008, these parties have suffered multiple splits, weakening their national political influence. Now, with local and national elections approaching, they seem to recognize the need for unity. While immediate unification is unlikely, their efforts may lead to a loose coalition. Some Madhesi leaders suggest India may have encouraged them to form a united front.

Like last week, speculation continues about the longevity of the current coalition. CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s recent public remarks on the government's stability have annoyed Prime Minister Oli, as they create uncertainty. This week, Oli stated he has full support from NC and will reciprocate the favor by handing over power to Deuba after 17-18 months. Oli has been engaging more with Deuba, who faces pressure to reconsider his alliance with UML but appears inclined to maintain the coalition. NC General Secretary Thapa, often seen as an opposition figure within his party, is now working to keep the coalition intact, offering some relief to Deuba.

In another story that should worry us and policy makers, Nepal faces the risk of being greylisted by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) due to deficiencies in combating money laundering and terrorist financing. The FATF Working Group Meetings, scheduled for Feb 17-21 in Paris, will assess Nepal’s progress. Nepal Rastra Bank Governor Maha Prasad Adhikari acknowledged the risk, stating that Nepal is in the listing phase after its mutual evaluation. This situation is a direct consequence of government negligence and failure to take necessary action against money laundering.

Finally, there has been significant concern over former US President Donald Trump’s decision to halt foreign assistance. Following an executive order, USAID in Nepal has informed the government and local implementing partners to temporarily suspend all projects for at least 90 days. However, the US Secretary of State has approved a waiver for life-saving humanitarian assistance during this review period. A statement from the US. The State Department clarifies that while humanitarian programs may continue, no new contracts shall be signed during this temporary pause.