How about a South Asian PMC
Every step of Wagner in Rostov-On-Don was seen as a rebellion against Russia’s top military brass, and many analysts even claimed an advantage for Ukraine as Wagner fighters claimed control of military facilities near the Ukrainian border. The Wagner forces, however, then moved to Belarus and made Poland aware of their presence, resulting in the deployment of large-scale troops along the border. This has raised the question of how big a role PMCs play in wars between nations and whether there is any need to create a counterforce to limit the rise of Kremlin-registered PMCs.
The answer probably lies in the South Asia or Indian subcontinent at large. The region, with its large population of digitally savvy youths, can play an influencing role in probably all recognized domains of warfare like air, water, land, space, and cyber, as each country in the region comprises highly dedicated soldiers whose values are registered in every continent where colonial masters deployed them; the memorials of Indian soldiers are kept in multiple countries; Nepali soldiers are respected for their spirit with a famous quote from Gen Manekshaw resonating around the globe: “If a person saying to not fear death is either lying or he is a Gorkha soldier”.
Bangladeshi and Bhutanese forces are also recognized and awarded by the UN for their contributions to peacekeeping.
There is a high possibility that by harnessing battlefield strategies, the former Indian decorated officers can move ahead in registering their own corporations that can include soldiers across the Indian subcontinent and also include foreigners to give a competition to the ascendancy of Wagner. The only stronger group capable of countering Wagner apart from the one headquartered in South Asia can be from Israel, where citizens are nurtured since childhood to learn how to defend the soil, and they narrate incidents that sound like stories with their secretive missions. If not as a separate group, the Israelis might prefer working with an Indian subcontinent-led group as they have worked with Indian soldiers on counter-terrorism operations for decades, and both forces have great mutual respect for each other. This friendly bond might prevent the youths from joining Wagner, which is more of an individual-centric force.
While Wagner enjoys the privilege of owning sophisticated weapons, it will not be difficult for the PMC from the subcontinent to compete, particularly due to the ongoing startup revolution in India that is home to several companies that can use their skills to design arms and ammunition on a par with Wagner. The Indian subcontinent PMC, led by former military veterans, might not utilize a large number of prisoners on moral grounds.
The South Asian-led group is also expected to receive support from the USA, as their Blackwaters and Academies are not in a position to challenge Wagner, and its regular military force leaving Afghanistan has contributed to erasing the image of a global powerhouse built after the elimination of Osama Bin Laden. Further, the USA’s ongoing tensions with Iran and China will prevent it from deploying its regulars and reservists against Wagner mercenaries in any form.
Can South Asia fight as a unit?
While SAARC is yet to achieve its mission and vision for bringing unity, the countries, in their individual capacities, have displayed strength of unity and valor at UN peacekeeping missions deployed under the United Nations. The South Asian countries’ militaries in particular are appreciated globally for displaying the highest ethos in all battles, even with Pakistan, where the Indian soldiers gave due respect to the bodies of Pakistani soldiers who came as civilians during the Kargil War, and the same Pakistani soldiers were not recognized by its own leadership. Despite territorial disputes and misunderstandings, India has a good bond with all South Asian member-states save Pakistan, and India conducts annual military exercises to share the best practices. In the society of the youths from Pakistan and India, when they move abroad, even to their colonial masters, the British, they are found to live in harmony and also have developed relationships, in a few cases even extending to marriage. The only challenge to the unity in South Asia from creating a PMC is Pakistani-based extremists who can influence unemployed youths with anti-India sentiments by telling stories that feed the extremist ideologies.
What does the future hold?
Wagner chief Prigozhin’s demise leaves a big question for not just Wagner and its global operations but also for the contemporary geopolitics being closely monitored by the US and the UK. His death is not much of a surprise though, after an attempted “march for justice” about two months ago referred widely as a mutiny against Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has a history of silencing the voices raised against his authority. While the west is publicly pointing fingers at Putin by floating numerous stories like a missile hit or a bomb inside the plane carrying the Wagner chief, there is not yet a final confirmation on the crash. President Putin has offered his condolences and remembered Prigozhin and Wagner for their contributions to a common cause of fighting the neo-Nazi regime in Ukraine. Interestingly, apart from Ukraine, Wagner’s role is instrumental in increasing Russian influence in Africa and Prigozhin’s contribution to the establishment of a business empire there.
The last video message from Prigozhin makes it clear that Wagner’s services, especially in a militancy-hit West Africa, is set to increase with the people’s love for Wagner rising every day. Niger, which witnessed a coup recently, may be a case in point.
The Wagner group today is not just about mercenaries. It is a company operate mines and logging companies, it is involved in oil trade in Syria and knows how tough it is to handle multiple businesses. In its bid to rule out chances of challenges from the group again, the Kremlin might consider fragmenting Wagner into different businesses and also merging a few. Besides, Wagner is not the only group at the beck and call of the Kremlin. Though not as effective as Wagner, other groups like Redut and Convoy also report to Russia’s defense ministry.
Apart from Russian participation in the game, any of the three likely scenarios may emerge: This includes Wagner’s intelligence unit holding supremacy by surpassing western intelligence agencies, including France’s DGSE. Notably, President Immanuel Macron recently showed dissatisfaction over DGSE’s failure to prevent the Niger coup. Wagner has started recruiting Nepali youths in their units. Indian Agniveers not retained in the army after completion of their limited service periods may prefer joining such PMCs. In other neighboring countries, the outcome may not be any different: Youth, after a fixed term of service, may join PMCs over the national private security companies, where they now get a mere salary.
Secondly, the former military top guns may form a uniform body with all existing Private Security Companies (PSCs) in registering their own corporations by including soldiers across the Indian subcontinent as well as foreigners. Thirdly, Wagner and its merged group may recruit fighters by establishing offices in the whole of South Asia, thereby serving as the monopoly in the field of PMC and offering the ‘one-stop solution’ to all small countries with its large arsenal of arms and ammunition.
One fact won’t change, though.
The smaller countries will have to outsource their militaries to the PMC or take help from them in their military affairs to ensure they are not overtaken by other nations that condemn such recruitments but support coups at the same time.
Future of Wagner Group after Prigozhin passing
Against the backdrop of the current global security landscape, there is an undeniable and profound transformation taking place, both intricate and far-reaching, necessitating a thorough and comprehensive examination. Amidst this complex web of challenges, it is crucial not only to understand the Wagner phenomenon within the confines of policymaking but also to extend this understanding to a broader societal context. One of the fundamental questions that arises is whether security forces should be viewed as a public good or a private good. In other words, should they be taken as entities exclusively under the control and responsibility of governments and public institutions, or can they be mobilized by private entities, at any time, and in any location? This question delves into the heart of how security is conceptualized and provided in our contemporary world, and it challenges traditional notions of state monopoly on the use of force. It requires a nuanced understanding of the changing dynamics of security provision and the implications this has for society as a whole.
A growing influence
The Wagner Group still poses a significant global security risk due to its involvement in conflicts and destabilization efforts even though the mastermind Yevgeny Prigozhin is assumed dead, with its mercenary activities often on state actors' behalf potentially exacerbating tensions. Prigozhin, a Russian business tycoon, was referred to as the founder of the Wagner Group in 2014 and is slowly claiming the title of "father of modern mercenary forces", which now probably needs no introduction after its attempted mutiny against the Russian establishment in July. Prigozhin, often known as "Putin's chef" for providing catering services to the Kremlin, holds a central role in the group's formation and operations. Under Prigozhin, the Russian-registered Private Military Company (PMC) has fought in Ukraine and won Bakhmut for Russia, and now it is in headlines for its role in Africa as Wagner is now showing its strength to secure victory for Niger's dictator Gen Abdourahamane Tchiani, who declared himself the head of a transitional government on July 28, less than 10 days after Niger's elected president Muhammad Bazoom was captured by the military.
Wagner, who is said to have ties with Russian military intelligence, has recently ignited the debate on future warfare in the ongoing Niger coup after its operations spanned conflicts in Syria, Ukraine, and parts of Africa. Wagner’s intelligence unit has managed to win over the intelligence agencies of several western nations, like France, which had deployed around 1500 troops in Niger, and the US, which has over a thousand troops across two bases. Italy kept around 300 troops, and the European Union had at least a hundred troops, and yet together these troops have somehow failed to check extremism and terrorism attacks in Niger.
Mercenaries in future wars
Throughout history, the use of mercenaries has been a recurring strategy employed by various civilizations to augment their military prowess. From Ancient Egypt to the modern era, mercenaries have played diverse roles in conflicts and expansion. This article delves into the historical roots of employing mercenaries, explores their utilization by European colonial powers, and highlights the contemporary surge in the use of Private Military Companies (PMCs) in a global context. Wagner has given rise to the rise of future mercenaries with its success in Central African Republic (CAR) where in the heart of capital city Bangui, a statue is placed that stands as a display of support to the CAR and also since Wagner is seen jointly with local security agents for providing security to President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, at least the defensive system of few countries can be seen to be under the mercenary already.
Private militaries covert combat
Like all major warfare initiatives, the US paved the way toward the rise of modern mercenary warfare, where it had to turn to PMCs for its need to undertake its military operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere to avoid the domestic backlash. This tactic of using contractors was thoroughly studied by the Kremlin, and as a result, the Russian version of the US’ most successful PMC, Blackwater, was created under the name Wagner. Although Blackwater later had to change its name to Academi after it was forced out of Iraq after a shooting incident in which 17 civilians died, Wagner, however, enjoys people’s full support wherever it goes to fight, and has always had the upper hand.
As global powers are making Africa a battlefield with the West and China employing methods to take the resources, the ground is also going on the verge of becoming a shadow battleground. This year, the Central African Republic saw the killing of several Chinese workers. China is now claiming that in the whole of Africa, their workers are often kidnapped for which they are increasing their security by deploying PMCs like DeWe Security Service, Huaxin Zhong An Security Group and China Security Technology Group. It is to be noted here that the Chinese government has direct or indirect control over the companies full of security agents with a military background, thanks to a compulsory military service in China. All this is set to make Africa a battleground.
Bhandari is assistant professor at the Department of Conflict, Peace and Development Studies, Tribhuvan University
Das is executive editor at IADN , India’s leading portal on Aerospace and Defense
