Nov 20 elections : A view from Beijing
The vote count of the Nov 20 election is approaching its end, and it is obvious that the ruling coalition will continue to hold the position. While some may applaud the outcome and some may regret it, the most important issue at this moment, however, is to look beyond the results and focus on the long-term political stability and vision of Nepali government. In this election, one can clearly see two aspects. First, the majority of the people are in favor of political stability, which can be seen from the results where the ruling parties have an obvious advantage over the opposition. Second, if one leaves the parliamentary system aside for a minute, one would find that the majority of the votes still went to the leftist parties, which means that the public opinion is still calling for a leftist policies to promote economic development and social equality. Therefore, no matter how the new coalition is built, the new government’s paramount mission will be addressing the people’s demand for stability, development, equality, and the rule of law. Addressing these popular demands will be quite a challenge for Nepal’s next government, no matter how the coalition is formed. Many analysts in China, for example, are often frustrated to see that, although elections in Nepal take place in democratic order, it seems that there is not much major reforms or development progress carried out or accomplished despite various administrations taking charge of the country. Sometimes a change of government after elections can also have an unexpected impact on economic development. One famous example, which the Chinese often talk about, is the hydropower station project at Budi Gandaki. The construction of the hydropower station was disturbed by the change of administrations and lack of consensus among major parties. This unfortunate case of disturbance had quite a negative impact of confidence on Chinese investors in Nepal, and on Nepal’s own pursuit of improvement of infrastructure. For the stability and economic development of Nepal, it would be very important for the new government to always uphold the people’s demand for modernization, industrialization, and economic development. The Nepali society should also regard economic development as a multi-party consensus, which is superior to power competitions among the parties and interests of each party. In Nepal, there is a popular point of view arguing that China is more inclined to work with the leftist coalition than others. While it is probably true that the Chinese are emotionally closer to the left because of historical friendship and ideological similarities, it is not precisely correct to say that China has any concrete goal to actively promote a leftist coalition or that it prefers to work only with the left government. We believe that many analysts probably overestimate China’s possible influence on Nepal. While China seemingly attempted, with very limited determination and capacity of influence, to mediate between the leaders before the split of the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) in 2018, it also realized that it was beyond its willingness and capacity to do so. This realization led China to retreat into its classical position of non-intervention of other states’ domestic affairs. In addition, what is more important is that the Chinese government has made public statements saying Nepal is a friend and neighbor and China wishes to enhance its bilateral relations with Nepal, no matter which political party is in charge. Therefore, we would expect the Chinese side to welcome the current choice of the Nepali people demonstrated by the most recent elections, and the Chinese wish of cooperating with Nepal through frameworks such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has not changed. The year 2023 will mark the 10th anniversary of the Chinese announcement of the BRI, and thus it would be a significant moment for China. Due to the unique political atmosphere of China, it is almost certain that the Chinese government will try to celebrate the 10th anniversary of the BRI as a self-perceived great victory. The Chinese government is very likely to enhance its investment on the BRI to any country welcoming it despite the quite severe economic challenge China is facing this year due to its zero-Covid policy. Therefore, next year should be an opportunity for Nepal to continue seeking benefits from Nepal-China cooperation, especially from the BRI projects. A major goal of the next administration in Nepal should be maintaining political stability and promoting economic development through effectively utilizing foreign-directed investment and foreign aid. The crucial timing of the 10th anniversary of the BRI projects would provide a tremendous opportunity for those who understand the logic of Chinese politics to seek more economic aid and investment for their countries’ development. Nepal is now facing a crucial time. Internationally, there is the risk posed by the complicated China-US-India triangular relations and controversy over the US-led Indo-Pacific Strategy and China-led Belt and Road Initiative. Domestically, the Nepali economy, especially after the pandemic, needs to revive. Nepal has lots of unfinished missions in the field of economic development, health care, infrastructure building, education, and cultural reform. Elections ought to select the most competent leaders to lead Nepal to handle those risks and to seek opportunities, but should not be simply a competition held among a small group of powerful figures. The large hope that many international friends of Nepal have for the post-election time is that no matter what the election outcome, Nepali society and political parties should cease the polarization and political resentment among the leadership. Nepali political parties should reconcile and work together to actually improve the livelihood of the people and to handle international challenges. In Nepal’s path for economic development, its northern neighbor will certainly stand by its side no matter how the Nepali domestic politics develop. The important thing is Nepal should take more active initiatives to seek funding and development opportunities for itself. Xuehan Shang is affiliated to George Washington University, and Sheng Zhang is a research fellow of the Chengdu Institute for World Affairs