Submit your Article

Clashes erupted once again between Afghan and Iranian border security forces in the Afghan border province of Nimruz on 27 May 2023, resulting in the deaths of two Iranian security forces and one Taliban border guard. Both sides blamed each other for the incident, with the Taliban accusing Iran of firing first and Iran accusing the Taliban of violating a water-sharing treaty. The clashes are the latest in a series of tensions between Afghanistan and Iran. In recent months, Iran has accused the Taliban of violating a 1973 water-sharing treaty between the two countries by blocking water flow from the Helmand River, which flows from Afghanistan to arid eastern border regions of Iran, a powerful regional player with a long history of involvement in Afghanistan. The Taliban is a relatively new and untested government, and it is unclear how it will respond to the challenges it faces from Iran and other regional powers. The situation in Afghanistan is complex and volatile. Despite their relatively peaceful relationship and lack of significant territorial conflicts, Afghanistan and Iran are facing an escalating dispute over the distribution of water resources from the Helmand, a crucial water source supporting essential functions such as irrigation, agriculture, and drinking water for both the countries. Over the past years, the river basin has encountered a series of droughts, compounded by impacts of climate change, posing challenges for both sides in effective management of the water source. Afghanistan’s act of constructing the Kamal Khan dam near the Iran border has exacerbated the situation. Iran, currently facing critical water shortages in 270 cities, has expressed concerns about this dam and there are reports of potential missile strikes to destroy it. This escalating situation raises the possibility of a full-fledged war over water, which could go down in history. A network of dams The construction of dams on the Helmand River poses a complex challenge with wide-ranging implications, especially for Iran as a downstream country heavily dependent on the river for its water supply. Afghanistan has built multiple dams along the Helmand, mainly to meet irrigation and hydropower needs. These dams have given rise to significant concerns regarding water control, environmental impact, and regional security dynamics. Some of the major dams along the river are as follows:

1. Built in 1945, Grishk Dam has a power generation capacity of  1.2 MW.
2. Built in Kajaki district of Helmand province in 1953, Kajaki Dam has a power generation capacity of 151 MW.
3. Built near the border with Iran in 2021, Kamal Khan Dam has a power generation capacity of 9 MW.

It’s important to note that not all dams have a similar impact. Their effects are contingent upon factors such as dam design, operation, and the level of cooperation between upstream and downstream countries in managing water resources. Water as a political tool Tensions have exacerbated between Afghanistan and Iran over the river, with Iran accusing Afghanistan of using the river as a political tool, suggesting that Afghanistan is manipulating water flow to exert pressure on Iran. In Afghanistan, there is already a backlash against Iran due to its treatment of Afghan refugees and forced repatriation of migrants. Some in Afghanistan posit that Iran is leveraging the refugee issue to put pressure on Afghanistan, prompting Afghanistan to consider using water as a leverage to improve Iran’s treatment of Afghan refugees. This complex interplay highlights how shared water resources can intersect with political agendas and humanitarian concerns, potentially leading to strained relations and negotiations between neighboring states. Impact on India and China Tensions between Afghanistan and Iran can have significant implications for India and China, considering their respective interests and investments in the region. India has enjoyed positive relations with both countries and has made substantial investments in Afghanistan, including the construction of the Salma Dam. In Iran, India has invested in the development of the Chabahar Port, which holds strategic importance for trade and connectivity. Any conflict or dispute between Afghanistan and Iran could disrupt India’s ongoing projects, impact economic interests, and jeopardize regional stability, prompting India to prioritize the prevention of such conflicts. China has been actively expanding its influence in Afghanistan and Iran through investments in infrastructure projects and its Belt and Road Initiative. China's long-term plans in the region could be affected by tensions or conflicts. Both India and China have vested interests in avoiding any water-related conflict or war as it can put their investments at risk and disrupt the overall peace and stability of the region. Conclusion The Afghan-Iran dispute over water has regional implications that can transcend beyond borders, with political factors often complicating the situation further. It is important to prioritize collaboration over competition and focus on long-term water management strategies that ensure equitable and sustainable use of resources. The water crisis between Afghanistan and Iran is a significant challenge that, if left unresolved, can escalate into a conflict over water resources. However, it is important to note that there are viable pathways to address this crisis. Ultimately, the way forward requires a combination of diplomatic efforts, sustainable water management practices, and regional cooperation to ensure the equitable and sustainable utilization of shared water resources. By addressing these challenges proactively and collaboratively, Afghanistan and Iran can promote peace, stability, and mutual benefits and the wider region. The author is the Director of Research at the Indo-Pacific Consortium of Raisina House, New Delhi. He tweets @The_China_Chap. Views expressed are personal  

India and China are struggling with severe water shortages as a direct result of a number of interrelated causes, including fast population increase, urbanization, industry, and climate change. The overexploitation of groundwater resources in India has resulted in falling water tables and a decreased supply of potable water in several regions of the country. In addition, ineffective irrigation techniques and inadequate infrastructure for water management have led to the lack of available water supply. In China, the situation is similarly dire, with northern and north-western regions facing chronic water scarcity while southern regions are increasingly facing water stress due to over-extraction of groundwater, industrialization, and rapid economic growth. The situation in China is similar to the situation in the United States, where there is a chronic water shortage. Both India and China are struggling with the difficulty of meeting their expanding water demands while also meeting the imperative to maintain and conserve the few water resources they have. Water infra competition Both India and China, two of the world's largest countries, are experiencing growing difficulties associated with a lack of available water resources. In addition to this, they are moving quickly to build their water infrastructure in order to address these problems. However, competition between the two nations for water resources is becoming more intense. This is particularly the case as both countries' economies continue to expand and as the demand for water increases. This competition is being driven by a number of variables, including, but not limited to, the growth of the population, industrialization, and agricultural expansion. Both nations are making investments in water management and conservation initiatives, and they are also investigating novel approaches to the problem, such as desalination, water reuse, and the collection of rainwater. These actions are being taken to address the problem. However, they are also required to collaborate in order to efficiently manage the shared water resources that they have, like the Brahmaputra and the Indus river basins, in order to ensure that both countries have equitable and long-term access to water supplies. The Brahmaputra contestation The Brahmaputra River, which originates in Tibet and flows through India and Bangladesh, is a source of concern for both India and China. India is concerned about China's plans to build dams and other water infrastructure projects on the Brahmaputra River, which could potentially reduce the flow of water into India and Bangladesh and affect their water security. China, on the other hand, is interested in developing hydropower projects on the river to support its energy needs. Both countries have held discussions on the issue, but a formal agreement on the sharing of the Brahmaputra's resources has not been reached. This issue highlights the need for better regional cooperation on trans-boundary water resources and the importance of finding sustainable solutions that balance the needs of all parties involved. It's also crucial for both India and China to consider the potential environmental impacts of their development plans, including the potential impact on downstream ecosystems and communities. Effective water management and cooperation can help to ensure that the Brahmaputra continues to provide vital resources for the people of India, Bangladesh, and China. India-China water diplomacy India and China have had a complex relationship with regard to water diplomacy, as both countries are major riparian states in Asia and have various trans-boundary rivers that flow through both countries. The main issue of concern is the unequal distribution of water resources between the two countries and the potential for upstream activities by one country to affect the water security of the other. Despite various agreements and dialogues, a comprehensive solution to water diplomacy between India and China has not yet been reached and remains a key area of contention between the two nations. Future of bilateral water ties The future of India-China water relations is uncertain and depends on several factors including the political relationship between the two countries, the level of trust and cooperation, and the ability to resolve disputes through peaceful means. On the one hand, both India and China recognize the importance of trans-boundary river management and have expressed a desire to enhance cooperation in this area. The two countries have established mechanisms such as the Expert-Level Mechanism and Joint Working Group to address water-related issues, and both have expressed a commitment to following international laws and norms related to trans-boundary rivers. On the other hand, the potential for conflict and competition over water resources remains a concern. The ongoing construction of hydropower dams by China on the Brahmaputra, for example, has raised concerns in India about the potential impact on downstream water flows and agriculture. Additionally, the lack of a comprehensive and legally binding agreement between the two countries to manage trans-boundary rivers leaves room for disputes to arise. Overall, the future of India-China water relations will depend on the ability of both countries to build trust, engage in constructive dialogue, and find mutually beneficial solutions to manage trans-boundary rivers. Way forward To avoid a water war between India and China, a comprehensive and cooperative approach to trans-boundary river management is needed. Some solutions that can be considered include: Improved communication: Regular communication and dialogue between the two countries can help address concerns, build trust, and resolve disputes peacefully. Joint studies and monitoring: Conducting joint studies and monitoring of trans-boundary rivers can help increase understanding and provide scientific data to support decision-making. Implementing international law: Both India and China should vow to follow international laws and norms related to trans-boundary rivers, such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses. Regional cooperation: Involving other countries in the region in water management initiatives can help build trust and promote regional stability. Enhancing multilateral mechanisms: Strengthening existing multilateral mechanisms, such as the Expert-Level Mechanism and Joint Working Group, can help enhance cooperation and provide a platform for dialogue on water-related issues. It is important to note that resolving water disputes between India and China will require a long-term and sustained effort, and will require both countries to prioritize cooperation and compromise.

Nepal is an important neighbor of India and holds special significance in its foreign policy due to centuries-old geographic, historical, cultural, and economic ties. Not only do the two countries have an open border and free movement of people, but they also have close bonds through marriages and familial relations, also sometimes referred to as Roti-Beti ka Rishta. The India-Nepal Treaty of Peace and Friendship of 1950 is the foundation of the special ties. So, whenever there is an election in the neighborhood, it becomes of strategic importance for India to look into the country’s domestic politics and its results to maintain good relations with the government. The article will highlight how recent Nepal elections will set the future of India-Nepal relations. The transition from monarchy to democracy Nepal was ruled by a succession of hereditary rulers for most of its history. In Nepal, numerous governments have been formed, and many have failed. Since the restoration of democracy in 1990, there have been three elections: in 1991, 1996, and 1999. Nepal has always desired to transition from a monarchy to a democratic government and change its founding principles to conduct a new society. Nepal had seen several popular democratic movements, and on 28 May 2008, the newly elected Constituent Assembly said that Nepal was now a federal democratic republic. It got rid of the monarchy, which had been in place for 240 years. Nepal today has a president as head of state and a prime minister heading the government. It has experienced two systems: monarchy (from the country’s unification in 1768 until 2006) and republican democracy (from 2007 to the present). Election fever in 2022 On Sunday, Nov 20, approximately 18m eligible voters cast their ballots in Nepal to elect new federal and provincial legislatures, the country’s second election since the constitution was promulgated in 2015. The 165 members of the 275-member federal House of Representative will be elected through the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system, with the remaining 110 seats filled using a proportional representation system (PR). A total of 330 seats in the seven provincial houses will be decided directly, with proportional representation filling the remaining 220 seats. In the past Nepal’s leaders had made collective promises of ‘stable government, democratic consolidation, economic prosperity, and corruption-free governance’. but none of them could keep their promises, especially for India, which plays a decisive role in Nepal’s internal politics. The current government, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba of Nepali Congress (NC), has deep strategic relations with India and shares a common good. But, in the past, under the leadership of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) of former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, the ties between the two countries became fractious. Oli hopes to return to power after the election and he has promised to bring Kalapani, Lipulekh, and Limpiadhura, a disputed territory between Nepal and India, under Nepal’s control. The border issue has emerged as a major bone of contention between Nepal and India. India, China and the US nexus China and India aren’t the only countries waiting with bated breath for the results of Nepal's elections. In its fierce competition with China in the region, the US cares just as much about who comes out on top. To fight against China’s Belt and Road Initiative, worth billions of dollars, and also in the Indo-Pacific. China, meanwhile, has been working to become a significant player in Nepal since 2006. It is doing so by increasing its investments in many different areas. So China is looking for a government in Kathmandu that is cooperative and willing to work for its interests. Beijing’s increasingly close ties with Kathmandu has annoyed New Delhi no end. Tensions between India and Nepal grew with the Oli government signing of a trade and transit treaty with China in 2016. President Xi Jinping visited Nepal in Oct 2019. All these major activities have a strategic role in forming future relations between India and Nepal. Challenges for India Internal security is a big issue for India. The border between India and Nepal is almost open and only lightly policed, which terrorist and insurgent groups from the North Eastern part of India use to their advantage by, for example, sending trained cadres and fake Indian currency. India’s reputation for taking too long to finish projects has made the trust gap between India and Nepal grow over time. Nepal has had a long history of political instability, including a 10-year violent insurgency, which has hurt the country’s growth and economy. Some Nepali ethnic groups don't like India because they think that it meddles too much in Nepal’s internal affairs. Nepal and China have diplomatic ties, and the latter’s influence in Nepal is growing. It means that India has less power in Nepal than it used to. So, to overcome China’s growing influence, India will need to start narrowing the communication gap with Nepal, as well as give momentum to stalled projects. Conclusion Elections in Nepal may have significant geopolitical implications for India and other neighboring nations. No matter which political party comes to power. India should provide an alternative narrative for India-Nepal relations, considering the long-standing people-to-people ties and cultural connection between the two nations. It should concentrate on realizing the unrealized potential of hydropower cooperation, mainly due to divergent perceptions. It should maintain its policy of non-interference in Nepal’s internal affairs. India cannot afford to overlook the need for a stable and secure Nepal, given its immense strategic significance. Misuse of an open border by internal and external forces affects both countries, and both are responsible for border management and regulation. All of these significant challenges and their resolutions will propel India-Nepal relations to new heights. The author is the Director of Research in the Indo-Pacific Consortium at Raisina House, New Delhi. Views expressed are personal