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When Prime Minister KP Oli was inaugurating the Dharahara tower in Kathmandu even before its construction was completed, Nepalgunj, a border town in western Nepal, was reeling under a severe crisis. 

More than 1,000 cases of Covid-19 were being reported a day in the city of 1.3 million people. Nepalgunj Sub-metropolitan City lobbied with the federal government to lock-down the town, to no avail.

The District Covid Crisis Management Committee (DCCMC), headed in the district by a representative of the federal government, decided to impose a lockdown in the city only after April 25 when hospitals’ resources were spread thin as they tended to a surging number of terminally-ill patients.

Constitutionally, all three tiers of government—the local, provincial and federal—are free to exercise their executive rights. But the prevailing pandemic law doesn’t allow local governments to act independently in pandemic-containment or in any other crisis.

According to Annex 5 of the constitution, the federal government reserves the right to prepare health protocols and policies to control infectious diseases.

Soon, the city became a Covid-19 hotspot.

“We had for long been requesting for a lockdown and the closure of border crossing with India. Had the DCCMC acted on time, our city may not have faced a disaster-like situation,” says Uma Thapamagar, deputy mayor of Nepalgunj Sub-metropolitan City.

Against all odds, Nepalgunj Mayor Dhawal Shumsher Rana decided to mobilize available resources to tackle the Covid-19 crisis.

“Unlike during the first wave, the local government this time had to manage hospital beds and oxygen for Covid-19 patients,” says Thapamagar, who also visited isolation centers and hospitals each day to observe the treatment of Covid-19 patients.

After a surge in Covid-19 cases in India, early warnings were issued by experts in Nepal as well. But the government failed to regulate the open border and adopt other precautionary measures. The education minister insisted that the schools remain.

Infectious diseases expert Dr Anup Bastola wrote on his Facebook on April 9, three weeks before prohibitory orders were issued in Kathmandu and major cities, “An alarm bell has already been rung that a second wave [of Covid-19 infections] cannot be avoided in densely populated areas. Let’s not neglect safety protocols.” 

Driving the change 

As hospitals across the country struggled to isolate and treat the infected, local representatives sprang into action. A local representative in Khotang district even carried Covid-19 patients on his back and drove them to the hospital on his official vehicle.

“I have carried at least nine Covid-19 patients on my back to the road and driven them to hospital,” says Bhupendra Rai, chairperson of Diprung Chuichumma Rural Municipality, Khotang.

According to Rai, when the sole ambulance in the local unit became dysfunctional at the peak of the Covid-19 crisis, Rai turned his official vehicle into an ambulance and started carrying Covid-19 patients with severe symptoms to hospitals wearing a PPE.

“People’s cries don’t reach Singha Durbar. The local representatives who have to work with people every day are concerned about their wellbeing,” says Rai. “I had no option but to take some risk to save my people.”

Rai is not the only one to turn official vehicles into ambulances to ferry Covid-19 patients. Dozens of local representatives have done so, including chiefs and deputy chiefs of Jaljala Rural Municipality, Parbat, Mathargadi Rural Municipality, Palpa, and other local units.

Hira Kewat, Chairperson of Omsatiya Rural Municipality in Rupandehi district, drove the body of a deceased Covid-19-infected person to the cremation site on a tractor.

“I got a call from the ward chairman about the situation. As the army would take time to get there and as the locals were not ready to cremate the body, I donned a PPE and drove the body on a tractor,” he says.

He had heard from doctors that chances of contracting Covid-19 from a dead body were minimal.

“I was socially excluded when I was infected during the first wave. So I could feel the pain of the family members of all those who were later infected,” he says.

Morale-boosters

To boost the morale of covid patients local bodies adopted all possible measures ranging from mobilizing doctors for door-to-door treatment services to the distribution of essential meals to psychosocial counseling.

Local representatives of Chandannath municipality in Jumla district distributing food to those in home-isolation.

Kantika Sejuwal, mayor of Chandannath Municipality Julma, decided to visit Covid-19 patients in home isolation with medicines and food rich in protein.

“We were not prepared for the second wave. Our isolation center was not even ready. So I decided to visit patients at home,” Sejuwal says.

According to Sejuwal, local governments are handling the worst crisis they have faced since their formation in 2017.

“The federal and provincial government representatives are busy fighting for power and the local units are paying the price,” she says.

Local representatives of Bheriganga Municipality in Surkhet distributed food and medicines to Covid-19 patients. They visited Covid patients in home-isolation with health workers for counseling.

Dharma Bahadur KC of Banphikot Rural municipality Rukum visited Covid patients with a health worker’s team, counseling them and spreading awareness among villagers. Representatives of Butwal Sub-metropolitan city did the same.

Visits and sympathy from local representatives boost the morale of covid patients that is vital to fighting the disease as well as any social stigma it might bring.

Nepalgunj Sub-metropolitan City also initiated drive-through treatment of Covid patients in home isolation. 

Missing money

Prime Minister Oli decided to seek a vote of confidence from Parliament on May 10 at a time when the country was reporting over 9,000 daily Covid-19 cases, and test positivity had reached 40 percent.

“The central and provincial governments, caught up in bitter power tussles, could do little and we had to shoulder the bulk of the responsibility,” says Kantika Sejuwal of Chandannath municipality.

According to Uma Thapamagar of Nepalgunj, had the federal and provincial governments acted on time, losses from the second wave of Covid-19 could have been minimized.

“Almost all local governments, including Nepalgunj, prepared isolation centers for the treatment of Covid-19 patients and managed oxygen on their own, by going beyond their constitutional and legal jurisdiction,” says Thapamagar. “The federal government just watched from the sidelines.”

Madhyapur Municipality in Bhaktapur started its oxygen plant when the country was facing an acute oxygen shortage.

Almost all local governments established isolation centers for the treatment of Covid patients as major hospitals were running out of beds and oxygen.

“The federal government has undermined the role of local units even in the ordinance on Covid-19 management,” says Ashok Byanju, chairperson of the Municipal Association Nepal.

 “If infectious disease management is the federal government’s absolute domain, it should manage the emergency on its own. If not, local governments should be adequately empowered,” he adds.

According to him, local governments have yet to recover the Rs 12 billion they spent on covid-management last year.

Some local governments have also sought the federal government’s permission to purchase Covid-19 vaccines. But health ministry officials say local units simply don’t have the wherewithal to do so.

In the fiscal year 1993-94, a record 600 industrial enterprises were registered with the Department of Industry. Democracy had been restored three years earlier and industrialists were coming up with innovative ideas. That year, around 90,000 new industrial jobs were created.

Two years later, the CPN (Maoist) began its armed insurrection against the state, instantly impacting budding industries. The number of industry registrations declined by 40 percent in 1996-97, the year the insurgency began. In the following years, until the Maoists joined mainstream politics by signing the 2006 comprehensive peace accord, annual industry registration never crossed 200.

“The rate of registration of new industrial enterprises declined sharply after the onset of the Maoist war. Investment in hydropower and infrastructure stagnated,” says Govinda Raj Pokharel, former vice-chairperson of the National Planning Commission. “Had there been no conflict at the time, Nepal’s export economy could have blossomed, helping reduce the trade deficit.”

Tourism saw a similar decline. Tourist arrivals fell by around six percent in 2000 compared to the previous year. The next year they fell by 23 percent, 24 percent in 2002, and three percent in 2005. As a percentage of total exports, tourism revenue declined by 24 percent in 1997, 15 percent in 2002, and 40 percent in 2005, writes economist Gyan Pradhan in his study ‘Nepal’s Civil War and Its Economic Costs’.

Injured & Dead Policemen after Maoists attack in Jajarkot being brought in helicpoter | Bikas Rauniar

Fear of violence and extortion dissuaded visitors and mountaineers and many western countries issued travel advisories against visiting Nepal.

The insurgency put brakes on the growth of Nepal’s private sector and its industrialization.

Pokharel says the conflict pushed the country two decades back in development. “A decade was spent in the armed conflict and another in transition into peaceful and democratic politics,” he argues.

But Maoist leaders disagree. Former Maoist Constituent Assembly member Khimlal Devkota says the insurgency instead opened up economic and development opportunities.

“There can be no development and prosperity in autocracies and places with deep-rooted discriminations,” Devkota says. “The Maoists waged a war to end all forms of discriminations and to ensure inclusive and proportional representation in state mechanisms.”

Devkota argues that even if the Maoists had not launched the insurgency, other forces would have taken a similar route to usher in political changes and end discriminations.

“The status quo could not have continued. A revolution against deep-seated discrimination was imminent,” he argues.

According to Devkota, the demand for a republican setup had also been raised during the 1990s democratic movement but with political forces backing it still weak, the monarchy couldn’t be ousted at the time.

“The Maoist movement played the primary role in the country’s transformation into a republic. No other political force struggled for the inclusion of women, Dalits, Madhesi, and the marginalized in state structures before,” political analyst Shyam Shrestha says. “But the Madhes movement needs to be credited for heralding federalism.”

Maoists fighters in Bara-Rautahat border area | Bikas Rauniar

The Maoist war has also been blamed for legitimizing extra-judicial violence. But even Pokharel agrees that the war contributed to introducing the republican order and minimizing caste, gender, and class-based social discriminations.

Major setback for development

However, on the other side, the conflict decimated numerous development efforts.

The state was forced to divert its development budget towards military and administrative purposes. Development budget comprised 56.6 percent of the total budget in the fiscal year 1996-97 as the insurgency started. The ratio declined by more than 15 percentage points, to 40.86 percent, in 2003 when the conflict peaked. Military budget soared threefold in a decade, from Rs 5.1 billion in 1996 to Rs 18.8 billion in 2006, according to various reports. The government also doubled the military size from 45,000 to 90,000, which increased the administrative budget and reduced the development budget.

The armed conflict also affected the country’s education system.

Schools and colleges were fully or partially closed at various times during the war. At least 60 teachers and 66 students were killed and at least 2,000 schools and colleagues suffered full or partial damages. At the start of the insurgency, private schools were only just expanding across the country, offering quality pre-primary and secondary level education. Internal displacement, migration, and threats resulted in the closure of many new private schools in rural areas.

“Had the boarding schools not closed, educated youths might still have been living in villages, as such schools would have offered them jobs. It would have added to the rural economy’s vibrancy,” Pokharel says. “Educational institutions were not alone. There was a lack of security for any investment. Industrialists were extorted and many industries had to be shut due to strikes and labor movements.”

Armed conflict is also believed to be a driving force behind rampant internal migration to urban areas.

Maoist rebels hand over their weapons to UN representatives | Agnieszka Mikulska

After threats from Maoists or pressure from state forces, many decided to leave the villages and migrate to cities for personal security. A report of the Internal Displacement Division Mission to Nepal released in 2005 estimates that as many as 200,000 people were displaced by the Maoist insurgency.

The Maoists seized the fields of the rich and distributed them to the people who ploughed the land. Internal migration, displacement and land capture by the Maoists also left productive village fields barren, hampering the production economy and increasing dependency on imports.

“80 percent of the people used to live in rural areas at that time. But entrepreneurship couldn’t be developed among rural people due to insecurity and uncertainty,” Pokharel says.

Taking loans for investments and the process of capitalization almost stopped, as did the culture of paying taxes.

Devkota from the Maoist party says the argument of the Maoist war resulting in losses for the country is similar to arguing that people save money by not shaving their beards. “Let’s revisit the Panchayat era. Why didn’t the country achieve much growth back then?” he asks.

Contributor to awareness and empowerment

“I would have been a housewife in a remote village of Rukum without the Maoist movement,” former Sports Minister Kamala Roka recalls her past as a Maoist fighter. “The Maoist war taught me to fight for our rights and to struggle against the patriarchal state.”

Roka claims women’s one-third representation in the country’s parliament was ensured only after the pressure of the Maoists, who emerged as the largest legislative force in the 2008 Constituent Assembly elections.

The 2007 interim constitution mandated at least 33 percent women’s representation in the country’s parliament, a provision that was given continuity in the new constitution promulgated in 2015.

Nutan Thapa, daughter of Journalist Dekendra Thapa,  murdered by Maoists | Bikas Rauniar

“Irrespective of human and financial losses in the Maoist war it was able to ensure inclusiveness in every structure, empower women by spreading awareness about their rights,” former Maoist commander Roka says. “Our nearly equal participation in the war also proved that women can revolt and assume responsibility when needed.”

According to political analyst Shrestha, without the insurgency, social and political changes in the country would have taken a lot longer.

“Countries without Maoist or armed conflicts have also transformed. Nepal’s Maoist rebellion helped expedite progressive changes in the society,” Shrestha claims.

In his opinion, the Maoists, however, failed to institutionalize their movement’s achievements after joining peaceful politics. “They lost an unprecedented opportunity to transform our state structure and reform policies,” he says.

Boon for remittance and real estate

Nepal held the local election in 1997, just a year after the start of the Maoist insurgency. The country had to wait until 2017 to hold the next round of local poll, largely thanks first to the Maoist insurgency and the protracted political transition afterward.

“Local-level bodies remained dysfunctional during the Maoist war, which hampered both development activities and leadership growth,” says Pokharel. “The war obstructed the natural course of competitive democratic politics.”

During the insurgency years, people started investing in real estate instead of industry, and commerce and land-plotting saw a sudden boom. 

Various studies have shown that Kathmandu’s land price spiked after the launch of the Maoist insurgency, with many people displaced from villages settling in the country’s capital where the effect of the war was minimal.

The culture of extortion flourished and start-ups were discouraged. At present, remittance contributes 30 percent to the country’s GDP, up from under five percent before 1996.

“The civil war increased labor migration of youths in both negative and positive ways. Positive in the sense that labor migration boosted both GDP and per capita income. Negative in the sense that Nepal couldn’t take advantage of its youth bulge for its own development,” Pokharel says.

Remittance simultaneously fueled imports and consumption, widening the trade deficit. Most of the money received in remittance was used to purchase land, build homes, and in other unproductive lifestyle pursuits.

Weighing the costs

During the war, the Maoists set fire to, bombed, or vandalized at least 8,000 state-owned buildings and infrastructures across the country, according to records maintained by the then Ministry of Peace and Reconstruction. Over 2,000 schools and VDC offices each were destroyed. According to ministry data, the war-damaged Rs 5 billion worth of infrastructure. The country also spent billions in the management of Maoist cantonments and establishing a peace-building mechanism. Expenses on transitional justice continue as the two TJ bodies struggle to conclude their tasks. The country has not maintained any records of expenses made by the United Nations Mission to Nepal (UNMIN), or by other donors and non-government agencies for the same purpose.

Maoist leaders say leading forces of the popular uprising in 2006 were against the republic and proportional representation system until the very end. “Even Nepali Congress voted against the idea and UML registered an amendment on our proposal for the republic and full proportional representation in interim parliament,” says Khimlal Devkota.

He says had there been no insurgency the palace would still be controlling the country. “The palace didn’t allow political parties to grow and weakened democracy. Without the war, the country could still be witnessing tussles between the king and political parties,” he says. “Nepal’s new status as a federal, secular republic would be hard to imagine without the Maoist insurgency.”

People should be thankful to the Maoists for taking leadership of the changes in the country, argues Devkota. “The old battle for power would have been ugly without the Maoist war, and could easily have descended into outright anarchy. The civil war was under the control of Maoist leadership and thus there was an easy safe-landing,” he claims.

The March 7 Supreme Court verdict annulling the Nepal Communist Party merger has allowed the Janata Samajbadi Party, Nepal (JSPN), the fourth largest in parliament, to play the kingmaker’s role in government-formation.

“It’s a rare occasion in Nepali political history that the fourth largest party is being seen as the kingmaker, especially when the largest two parties between them have close to two-thirds majority,” says Laxman Lal Karna, a JSPN leader.

Potential kingmaker it may be. But the party is still undecided over whether to side with Prime Minister KP Oli and help him retain his government leadership or to join the anti-Oli alliance to topple the incumbent federal government.

The CPN (Maoist Center), which is desperate to unseat Oli, is waiting for the JSPN as well as the main opposition Nepali Congress (NC) to come up with their formal decisions.

There is a long story behind the formation of the JSPN that is now jointly led by a former prime minister, many former ministers and other towering political figures in Tarai-Madhes.

Fissions and fusions

The JSPN came into being 11 months ago following the merger of Samajbadi Party Nepal (SPN) and Rastriya Janata Party Nepal (RJPN) in the wake of PM Oli’s attempt to split the Samajbadi Party and reach two-thirds governing majority. After realizing that the prime minister was trying to split the SPN by enticing some of its lawmakers into the government, the SPN decided to merge with the RJPN so that the lawmakers plotting the split would be unable to secure 40 percent parliamentary party seats needed for a formal split.

Political parties led by Upendra Yadav and Mahantha Thakur had won 50 and 20 seats respectively in the 2008 Constituent Assembly elections that followed the 2007 Madhes movement. But the two mother parties soon split into many fringe parties, mainly owing to disagreements over joining the government. As a result, their agendas lost their luster and they lost seats in subsequent elections.

Major political parties including Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and Maoist Center pushed through the new constitution in 2015 amid disagreement from Madhes-based political parties. Their grievances over constitution brought them together again as they realized that they wouldn’t be able to do much as separate entities.

The RJPN was subsequently formed after the unification of six parties and the SPN came into being after the merger of two parties. Their alliance again did well in 2017 national elections, especially in Province 2.

Both forces sought votes from the Madhesi, Tharu and other disgruntled communities who wanted the constitution amended to address their concerns. The SPN had even joined the Oli-led government in return of a promise to amend the constitution.

But the Upendra Yadav-led party was forced to quit the government after his differences with Oli started to widen, and when Oli seemed in no mood to amend the national charter. Yadav resigned as deputy prime minister after Oli transferred him from Health to Law ministry, without Yadav’s knowledge.

Differences between Oli and the new outfit of JSPN, the united Madhes-based party, further widened after the prime minister dissolved the parliament in December. The party took to the street against the government move.

After the verdict

After the Supreme Court reinstated the parliament and undid the NCP merger in the first week of March, the two ruling coalition partners, CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center) turned into arch-rivals. Congress, which was already in opposition, has also since taken the side of the Maoists to oust Oli. The JSPN, meanwhile, is waiting for the Maoists to pull out of the government before it commits to anything.

In this context, both the governing UML and the opposition NC and Maoists, have to rely on the JSPN to form a majority government. The supposed kingmaker party currently has 32 (eligible) seats in the parliament.

Reportedly, even as the JSPN continues to engage with the Maoists, relations between the ruling UML and the JSPN are thawing after the prime minister promised to address at least some of the latter’s demands.

The JSPN has formed an informal team to negotiate with Oli on their demands of registration of a constitution amendment bill in parliament, endorsement of the citizenship bill, release of its jailed leaders and cadres including lawmaker Resham Chudhary, and withdrawal of criminal charges against the same.

“We seek action not commitment this time. The prime minister has sought some time for homework,” says Karna, a member of the JSPN talks-team. According to Karna, to take the talks forward, the party awaits a timeframe from the prime minister.

“Other forces have also committed to addressing our demands but we don’t trust them yet as they are undecided on who should lead the government. Moreover, the chief among those forces, the Maoists, have yet to withdraw their support to the government,” he adds.

JSPN leaders say they are answerable to their voters and supporters who want their leaders released and political cases against their cadres withdrawn. In a recent interaction with civil society groups, Mahant Thakur said cases against Madhesi cadres were not withdrawn due to the state’s discriminatory policies.

Drawing the line

“The JSPN has drawn attention of major forces that always ignored its role in the past,” says Tula Narayan Shah, a close reader of Madhesi politics. “The major parties undermined this force both during constitution making and government formation. Madhes-based parties helped major forces form government without any conditions. This time, the JSPN has clearly outlined its conditions.”

According to Shah, JSPN’s stock in Madhes would rise if it succeeds in getting its demands addressed. “Any force that is critical of Kathmandu gets public support in Madhes. JSPN is demanding release or withdrawal of cases of those jailed or sued for protesting against Kathmandu. If this happens, the party will be welcomed with open arms in Madhes,” Shah says.

Asked whether another faction of the JSPN, led by Baburam Bhattarai and Upendra Yadav would agree to join the Oli-led government, Karna, who belongs to the former RJPN faction, says they won’t have a problems if the government address Madhesi demands.

But JSPN leader Pradip Yadav, who is believed to be close to Upendra Yadav, says that the party will decide only after key demands are addressed.

“Though we have some differences in the party, our common goal remains to press the government to address our concerns,” says Pradip Yadav. “There should be broad discussions inside the party on this.”

Analyst Shah claims that if the JSPN manages to gets its demands addressed, the Yadav-led faction would be positive about rejoining the government. “Those now against the idea of JSPN joining the government were earlier backing KP Oli without any concrete agreement. If the party joins the government after the grievances of Madhes are addressed, Madhes will welcome it,” he adds.

This achievement could also help the JSPN secure more votes in upcoming elections. Its leaders claim the party will sweep Province 2, which has 32 constituencies, and it may also win significant number of seats in Province 1, Lumbini Province and Sudur Paschim Province.

Present and future

The JSPN’s biggest challenge is to remain intact until the next round of elections. UML sources say Oli could try to pull some JSPN leaders into UML fold right before elections. The leaders who were earlier eager about joining Oli government by breaking away from the SPN are still interested in joining the UML, claims the leader who is close to Oli.

Some structural issues could also come in the way of JSPN’s continued unity. Though the SPN and the RJPN were united at the top, the unified JSPN remains a divided house at the grassroots, something that Karna too acknowledges.

Analyst Shah says it is way too early to predict future elections. But he reckons that the JSPN will do well. “CK Raut is a potent force. But I don’t think he will be in a position to challenge the more traditional parties at least until the completion of two more electoral cycles,” he says.

After that, Shah adds, Raut’s political star could rise as the educated youths of today who back him come of age and vote in future elections. “CK Raut has a bright future in Madhesi politics, in my reading,” Shah says.

Back in present, if Oli fails to win a vote of confidence in parliament, the JSPN may even get to lead an election government with the support of NC and Maoists. But right now that remains a matter of speculation. “Prachanda jee has offered prime minister’s position to our leader Mahanth jee. But then it is upon the one making the offer to create right conditions to make that happen,” says JSPN’s Karna.

Immediately after the February 23 Supreme Court verdict reinstating the parliament, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who was proposed as the new prime minister in a no-confidence motion registered against Prime Minister KP Oli, had said he was open to all possibilities on new prime minister.

But a month since the landmark verdict, Dahal has been unable to oust Oli. In fact, he is nowhere close to doing so. Paradoxically, the Oli-led government still enjoys a governing majority with continued support of Dahal’s CPN (Maoist Center).

When Dahal shared laddus with another former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal to celebrate the court verdict last month, Prime Minister Oli had mocked their ‘premature celebration’.

Indeed, the country’s political course soon turned upside-down. The same court, on March 7, decided to annul the merger of the CPN-UML and the CPN (Maoist Center) to form the Nepal Communist Party, undoing the two-year-old communist unity.

A desperate Dahal has since failed to stitch up an anti-Oli alliance.

“We are on the street for the ouster of this government that took the unconstitutional step of dissolving the parliament,” says Purna Kumari Subedi, a leader of the Maoist party. “Yet removing Oli has proven difficult as we have had to depend on other political parties who are as yet undecided about what they want.”

According to Maoist leaders, the Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal (JSPN) holds the key for the formation of a new government. But the fourth largest party in parliament is as yet undecided on whether to back Oli or to join a broad anti-Oli alliance.

“The situation is not ripe for this government’s removal as those trying to remove Prime Minister Oli simply don’t have the numbers,” says Krishna Bhakta Pokhrel, a leader of the ruling UML’s Oli camp.

Hobson’s choice

Dahal can potentially remove Oli from the prime minister’s chair in one of two ways: either by withdrawing Maoist support for the government or by registering a no-confidence motion.

Both options are difficult for Dahal with other major political actors sitting on the fence. To replace Oli by pulling out, Dahal must be able to garner the support of majority lawmakers against the prime minister.

“But if they fail to garner such a majority, the President will reappoint Oli as prime minister as the leader of the largest party in parliament,” says Pokhrel. “If, on the other hand, the Maoists withdraw their support, the prime minister must call for a vote of confidence. In that case, even if he fails to win the vote he could be reappointed.”

According to the constitution’s Article 76, Clause 3, “if Prime Minister fails to secure a vote of confidence… the President shall appoint as the Prime Minister the leader of the parliamentary party which has the highest number of members in the House of Representatives.”

As the Oli-led UML is the largest political force in the HoR with 121 lawmakers, Oli will be appointed prime minister again within a month's time. Again, if the leader of the largest political party fails to win majority votes, the constitution allows the President to appoint as prime minister any member of the lower house who can show a majority.

But as things are, no one party is in a place to claim such a majority, and if the situation continues there could be no option but to go for early elections—under PM Oli. Elections under Oli is something both the Maoists and the Congress dread.

Oli may bring populist programs to influence voters and he has a strong hold on state mechanisms. Also, according to the constitution the prime minister can recommend dissolution of parliament if no one can win a vote of confidence after the exercise of the constitution’s Clauses 3, 4 and 5 in Article 76.

Lack of confidence

In the second option, Dahal, with the support of Congress and JSPN, can file a no-confidence motion to oust Oli. But if the no-confidence motion fails, Oli's term as prime minister will be extended by at least a year. According to clause 4 of Article 100 of the constitution, the no-confidence motion cannot be filed ‘until another one year after the date of failure of the motion of no-confidence’.

Although the Congress and the Maoists are both desperate to oust Oli, they are afraid of bringing such a motion in the absence of an official JSPN decision to back the move.

“Registering a no-confidence motion will be risky until there is an agreement between the three major political forces outside the government,” says Congress whip Pushpa Bhusal.

According to her, consultations are underway to forge Congress-Maoist-JSPN alliance, but the ball is now firmly in the JSPN’s court.

Says JSPN’s Keshav Jha: “We have five conditions for supporting Oli.” The party has asked for the release of its jailed lawmaker Resham Chaudhary, withdrawal of cases against its cadres implicated in Tikapur killings, and registration of a constitution amendment bill, among its other demands.

But the JSPN leaders are also divided on whether to side with Oli or with the Maoist-NC alliance. A section of it including Mahantha Thakur and Rajendra Mahato are talking to Oli, much to the consternation of Upendra Yadav and Baburam Bhattarai who want Oli out at all costs. 

Sources close to Oli say the prime minister could heed at least some of the JSPN’s concerns—and possibly divide it—in order to block the kingmaker force from joining opposing parties.

On the other hand, Dahal and Deuba are not confident of getting a majority even with the JSPN on board. Of the 53 Maoist lawmakers in the lower house, four have already joined Oli’s UML. With Maoists’ 48 votes, NC’s 61 votes (barring two suspended MPs) and JSPN’s 32 votes (barring two suspended ones) the three-party alliance would have just three more votes than the minimum 138 needed for a majority in the lower house.

“We will have 141 MPs even after the alliance with Samajbadi Party. If just four MPs remain absent on voting day Oli will secure another year in office,” says a Maoist leader.

Early elections, then?

Oli floated the idea of early elections during an all-party meeting at the President’s Office last week. NC President Deuba chose not to speak at the meeting. “Oli wants to vindicate his move of parliament dissolution by holding early elections and Deuba will silently support him by not taking an initiative to form an alternative government,” says an NC leader who is critical of Deuba, requesting anonymity.

Speaking earlier this week in Biratnagar, Deuba said that the NC would neither bring a no-confidence motion nor would it join the government. All the same, Congress leader Pushpa Bhusal says Oli has lost the credibility to hold election after his decision to dissolve the parliament. 

“The present government cannot be trusted to hold timely elections. The Congress is always ready for elections because of its strong agendas but we cannot press for an early vote by going outside constitutional bounds,” she says.

UML’s Pokhrel says Prime Minister Oli is ready for early elections. “Although other parties are reluctant to face the people, Prime Minister Oli is ready. He is as ready for an early election as he is to face a vote of no-confidence,” he says.

… or a consensus government?

The Dahal-led Maoist party is not in a mood for early elections, say party insiders. The party has rather been pressing for a national consensus government, and Dahal had indicated his desire for the same after the restoration of the dissolved parliament in February.

“A consensus government is needed to pull the country out of its current quagmire. We are consulting political parties on the same,” says Subedi, the Maoist leader.

But Oli, who too favors early elections, is also not in a mood to let someone else head an election government.  

According to sources, the NC and the Maoists have proposed Mahantha Thakur of the JSPN as prime minister of an election government, but Thakur is yet to give his consent.

A tripartite NC-Maoist-JSPN government could be unstable though and Congress leaders fear joining such a government could tarnish the party’s image on election eve. Meanwhile, an early election could work to the advantage of Congress at a time the main communist forces are bitterly divided.

Prime Minister KP Oli’s political fortunes were sinking before the Supreme Court came to his rescue by decoupling the CPN-UML from the CPN (Maoist Center), thereby annulling the 2018 merger of the two parties to form the Nepal Communist Party (NCP).

Had his rival faction in the party registered a no-confidence motion and had it been endorsed, Oli would have lost his prime minister’s chair. Also, prior to the court verdict, had the Election Commission decided to give official name and recognition to the NCP rival faction led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal, he would have had to relinquish party chairmanship. The rival faction was expected to be recognized as the official one, as the majority of party central committee members as well as its lawmakers were on their side.

Before the verdict, Oli was said to be short of garnering the backing of at least 40 percent lawmakers as well as 40 percent party central committee members whose support would have been needed to split the NCP and form a new party. In the worst-case scenario, Oli could have lost his position of lawmaker.  

Many expected the prime minister to lose his PM’s position in the restored parliament. But the apex court verdict has vastly diluted that possibility.  

The verdict forced most of Oli’s former UML colleagues to return to their mother party by ditching Dahal, who is now the head of the restored CPN (Maoist Center). Around 40 NCP lawmakers including former prime ministers Madhav Nepal and Jhalnath Khanal, who had sided with Dahal in the conflict against Oli, decided to return. They had no other alternative. Legal provisions in the Political Parties Act allow a party to expel its breakaway MPs, forcing the return of Nepal, Khanal and other MPs back into the fold of Oli-led UML.

“We have decided to honor the court decision despite our serious disagreements over it. It aimed at dividing the unified party and went beyond the writ petitioner’s demand,” says Narayan Kaji Shrestha, a senior leader of the restored CPN (Maoist Center).

Mr Plan B

Oli’s confidants say he always has a plan B. “Many had thought he would lose the battle if the parliament was reinstated. It is now clear who has lost the battle,” says Bishal Bhattarai, chief whip of the reinstated UML.

After the NCP’s unravelling, the Maoists, Oli’s coalition partners, have been mulling withdrawing their support to the government, in which case the federal government will lose its ruling majority.

“Our party is discussing withdrawal. A final decision will be made after consultations with Nepali Congress and Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal,” says Maoist leader Girirajmani Pokharel.

But an abrupt Maoist withdrawal seems unlikely because if they withdraw their support for the federal government, the UML could maneuver to remove the two Maoist chief ministers of Karnali and Far-western provinces. 

UML chief whip Bhattarai says it doesn’t matter whether the Maoists stay or go. Either way, Oli will retain the premiership.

Oli-led UML has 120 seats in the House of Representatives (HoR) and needs only 18 more MPs to form a majority government. The prime minister has already put together a negotiation team to talk with the JSPN in order to lure them into the government. With the Madhesi party’s help, Oli can cobble together a majority even without the Congress and the Maoists.

That said, JSPN federal council chairperson Baburam Bhattarai as well as its chairperson Upendra Yadav are against joining Oli’s cabinet. On the other hand, Mahantha Thakur and Rajendra Mahato are interested, if the prime minister agrees to release jailed lawmaker Resham Chaudhary by withdrawing charges against him. “We are still in discussions. I cannot say what will happen right now,” says Laxman Lal Karna, a member of the JSPN’s negotiation team.

Sources say the JSPN could split over the issue. “At least 18-20 of the 34 MPs [including two suspended ones] from the party may break away to join the government,” says a UML leader who is involved in negotiations.

Maoist chairperson Dahal has also expedited negotiations to form a government of his own. He can remove Oli with the backing of Congress plus JSPN. (The Maoists have 53 lawmakers, Nepali Congress has 63 and JSPN has 34.)

The Congress is yet to commit to Dahal even though the two parties see eye to eye on the need to remove Oli. To reassure them, Congress leaders have asked Dahal to register a no-confidence motion against Oli.

Anticipated outcome

Oli appeared confident of holding on to his twin posts even after the parliament reinstatement. He had been saying that the celebrations of Dahal and Nepal was premature and they would ultimately be empty-handed. Defying expectations, he didn’t bring an ordinance to split the NCP in a bid to retain his MP’s position, which he could have lost if the official NCP recognition went to the Dahal-Nepal faction.

Sources close to Oli say he had anticipated the court verdict on NCP’s dissolution. “Even if the court didn’t do the job, the Election Commission would have completed the formalities a few weeks later,” says the aforementioned UML leader who chose to remain anonymous.

UML leaders claim the majority of local government heads are Oli loyalists. “Our team has the support of the majority of the 753 leaders of local governments, even when we don’t count those loyal to Nepal and Dahal,” says Bhattarai, the UML chief whip.  

Of the erstwhile NCP’s 388 local unit chiefs, 190 are loyal to Oli while 20 others aren’t with any faction, say party leaders.

Local representatives help their mother party build grassroots support and garner votes in parliamentary elections. This is why Oli is confident of a good UML showing in the next round of elections.

But Oli doesn’t have the support of the party’s second-rung leaders: the likes of Madhav Nepal, Jhalnath Khanal, Bamdev Gautam, Bhim Rawal, Asta Laxmi Shakya and Surendra Pandey who have been opposing his handling of the party and the government.

“The dissident faction will try to thwart him every step of the way,” says the UML leader close to Oli. “But what you have to remember is that he won back his old party name and election symbol, which is a huge victory in itself.” Both the NCP factions had eyed the enduringly popular UML electoral symbol of a blazing sun.

UML leaders including Ishwar Pokharel, Yubaraj Gyawali, Gokul Baskota, Mahesh Basnet and Ghanashyam Khatiwada had celebrated on their social media posts the court verdict that came in favor of Team Oli. Basnet and Khatiwada had said they were proud to be recognized as UML legislators within an hour of the decision.

Oli also has a stronghold on state mechanisms including constitutional bodies. Right now, his biggest challenge will be to manage the old leaders who have returned to the UML fold.

China had backed the merger of Nepal’s two biggest communist forces for a couple of reasons. China felt ideologically close to the two communist parties. The northern neighbor also hoped they could together form a strong, trustworthy government in Kathmandu.

Says Rupak Sapkota, deputy executive director at the Institute of Foreign Affairs (IFA) under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “China has for long backed stable and reliable forces in Nepal. It believes instability in Nepal would increase anti-China activities”. As most of China’s development projects in Nepal are under government-to-government modality, he adds, “China fears political instability could jeopardize them”.

But China is not alone in wishing for political stability in Nepal, says Amish Raj Mulmi, author of the new book 'All Roads Lead North: Nepal's Turn To China’. “Other development partners also wish the same to secure their investments.”

Chinese wishes aside, only two years into the merger of the two communist parties, a rift started developing between the two chairpersons of the united Nepal Communist Party (NCP). Chinese envoy to Nepal, Hou Yanqi, engaged in a series of meetings with ruling party leaders when the NCP disputes escalated. But the communist unity still unraveled after Prime Minister KP Oli unilaterally dissolved the federal lower house. 

Predictably, the House dissolution also soured PM Oli’s relation with China. This was someone who was consistently projected as pro-China, at home and abroad. 

To keep the NCP united, China at the end of December sent to Kathmandu a special mission under CPC vice-minister Guo Yezhou. But it was too late.

The decisive North turn

Nepal-India relations had soured when India tried to openly meddle in Nepal's internal politics in 2015 as the country was about to promulgate a new constitution. When India imposed a blockade on Nepal, the small landlocked country was left with no option but to reach out to China, the only other neighbor. For his brave blockade-time stand against India and for the historic agreements he signed with China, the communist coalition Oli led was rewarded handsomely in the 2017 general elections.  

Before that, Nepal had signed a bilateral cooperation agreement to join China’s Belt and Road Initiatives, China’s globe-spanning connectivity project. At the time, Pushpa Kamal Dahal was the prime minister after Oli had resigned ahead of the tabling of a joint Maoist-Nepali Congress no-confidence motion in the parliament.

When Oli was reelected prime minister later in 2017, he invited Chinese President Xi Jinping for an official visit. In 2019 Xi obliged, becoming the first Chinese president to visit Nepal in two decades, after Jiang Zemin’s historic 1996 trip. Nepal and China signed 18 memorandums of understanding during Xi’s visit, including some of strategic importance. 

During the trip, Xi committed to elevating Sino-Nepal relations to new heights. He also pledged help in Nepal’s quest to become a ‘land-linked country’ through multidimensional connectivity.

Unmet expectations

Oli had expected China to build Nepal-China railway on grant basis while China expected him to push for the implementation of BRI projects in Nepal. Both expectations proved misplaced.

“Under direct or indirect geopolitical pressure, Nepal’s political leadership couldn’t could push ahead with the BRI plans. The bureaucracy was also dissuaded when they heard rumors of debt trap in Sri Lanka,” says Sapkota of the IFA. “The regional equilibrium at the time was also disturbed due to the Doklam standoff between India and China”.

According to Sapkota, joining the BRI was an imperative if Nepal was to achieve its Vision 2030 goals as well as to fulfill the country’s development needs. “Most western donors have been extending assistance on human rights, women empowerment and similar issues. Nepal thus has to rely on neighbors for development projects, which are a must for the country,” he says.

Even as Nepal dilly-dallied on the BRI projects, the debate over a $500 million US grant engulfed the country’s politics, with the NCP sharply divided over whether to accept the grant without revising the underlying MCC agreement.

Then the Chinese weighed in. PM Oli was greatly miffed when the Chinese side told Oli he should be ready to resign as prime minister to maintain party unity, say NCP sources.  

In a reflection of the new state of play between the two countries, China offered Nepal 800,000 doses of Covid-19 vaccines only after India had itself supplied to Nepal a million doses. “Yes, China providing fewer vaccines than India was meaningful,” says a party source.

According to foreign affairs analysts, frustrations over delays in meeting expectations has resulted in a trust-deficit between Oli and Chinese side. But the Chinese have learned not to put all their eggs in a single basket, some say, and hence a change of guard in Kathmandu may not necessarily distress it.

The northern neighbor has always maintained good relations with all major political actors in Nepal. “China maintained very good relationship with BP Koirala even at the time of monarchy,” says Bhaskar Koirala, Director at the Nepal Institute of International and Strategic Relations. “China wants to maintain good relations with the NCP given its political strength. But aware of Nepal’s unstable political dynamics, it maintains relations with each and every political party in Nepal.”

Koirala recalls the meeting between Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe and Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba during Wei’s Nepal visit last November.

This had happened at a time China was unhappy with Congress after a party leader, Jeevan Bahadur Shahi, accused China of encroaching on Nepali territories in Humla district. Before that, in 2016, the then Prime Minister Deuba was drawn into controversy for sharing stage with the prime minister of Dalai Lama’s government in exile in 2016.

Still, China has tried to maintain good relations with the party. Chinese ambassador to Nepal Hou Yanqi even met Deuba after the parliament’s restoration last week.

“Chinese engagement in Nepal has increased unprecedentedly in the dozen years since the abolishment of monarchy. It has had to deal with different governments and leaders during the time. I believe the global power is slowly understanding Nepal,” Koirala says.

The great decoupling?

Irrespective of the less-than-perfect relations with Nepali government leadership, the Chinese ambassador was involved in initiation of two projects in Nepal this week. Prime Minister Oli laid the foundation stone for an industrial park in Jhapa, which is to be built with Chinese grant. He also laid the foundation of the Sunkoshi-Marine diversion project to be built by a Chinese company, again in Hou’s presence.

Separately, China Communication Construction Company with the Chinese government as its majority stakeholder is also interested in building Nijgadh International Airport, a strategically important international airport for Nepal.

Writer and analyst Mulmi believes China has given indications of decoupling investments and politics when it comes to Nepal. “I have also found some signs of that. But it would be too early to judge whether it has a political message or not”, he says.

Koirala says China will keep pushing its development initiatives irrespective of who is in power in Kathmandu. “This is not just the case of Nepal, it’s the same in other South Asian countries as well”.

He does not think China opposes the MCC in Nepal as it wants to invest in hydropower and without a cross-border transmission line power cannot be exported from Nepal. “In my opinion, the MCC serves the interests of all three major powers in India, China and the US,” adds Koirala. “The transmission line to be built by the US will help China to export electricity generated from its investment and India would get power supply from Nepal. The MCC uproar thus has more to do with Nepali domestic politics than it has to do with China”. 

The Supreme Court’s much-awaited Feb 23 verdict not only reinstated the dissolved federal parliament but also paved way for the filing of a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. That motion was registered at the parliament secretariat on December 20, just hours after the House dissolution.

But those planning Oli’s ouster are undecided over his successor as well as potential ruling coalition partners.

Many Tweeples have launched polls over likely new prime minister on the micro-blogging site following the Supreme Court verdict. Such polls feature common options: Oli, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Sher Bahadur Deuba, Madhav Nepal and Baburam Bhattarai.

Two-time former Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal was proposed as the new prime minister in the no-confidence motion registered by the dissident faction of the ruling Nepal Communist Party. But Dahal has since said time and again he will not become prime minister and that he is open about choosing another candidate for the top job.  

“We [the NCP’s Dahal-Nepal faction] have been projected as power hungry and fighting only for the prime minister’s chair,” Dahal said while addressing a rally in Kathmandu earlier this month. “We [Dahal and Nepal] are not fighting for the chair and we won’t be the prime minister even if the parliament is reinstated.”

Following the court verdict Dahal reiterated his openness to discussing a new PM pick.

Sources in the NCP’s Dahal-Nepal faction say the faction is thinking of revising the no-confidence motion lodged with the parliament secretariat in order to change the name of the proposed prime minister, even as an alternative candidate is yet to be decided.   

Who’s in the race?

Neither of the NCP splinter factions can claim government leadership without the support of the main opposition, Nepali Congress, which will now have the decisive role in government formation. But the jury is still out on whether NC will support an NCP faction or itself claim government leadership.

Observers say Congress Party President Sher Bahadur Deuba is certain to stake his claim by taking advantage of the rivalry between the two feuding NCP factions. In order to remove PM Oli, the Dahal-Nepal faction could offer premiership to Congress, but then Oli could do the same in order to checkmate the Dahal-Nepal faction.

Congress leaders say Deuba will be an unopposed prime minister candidate if the party decides to lead the government with the support of one or the other NCP faction. Congress parliamentary party has already elected Deuba as its leader and changing his stronghold in the parliamentary party won’t be easy. 

Yet many party leaders seem to be against the idea of NC joining the government. Senior leader Shekhar Koirala has said that Congress shouldn’t lead or join any government with under two years to go for the constitutionally-mandated general elections. Koirala, who is eying the party's leadership in the upcoming general convention, slated for August-end, also said NC should prepare for polls from the opposition, as befits its electoral mandate.  

Congress senior leader Ram Chandra Paudel and Krishna Prasad Sitaula, another influential leader, have both warned Deuba not to get greedy, and refrain especially from allying with Oli.

Although many NC leaders say they would support the Dahal-Nepal faction by staying out of the government, Deuba may find it hard to resist if Oli offers him the prime ministerial berth; Deuba has in recent times been close to Oli. The incumbent prime minister has already indicated he would favor Congress to lead the government. Addressing a public function in Kathmandu a day after the House reinstatement verdict, Oli said the Dahal-Nepal faction ‘wouldn’t get anything’ in the changed context. Some analysts interpreted Oli’s statement to mean that he had already hammered a deal with Deuba.  

“Most senior Congress leaders are against the idea of joining any government. Yet the party president may ultimately prevail,” says political analyst Krishna Khanal. “This despite the fact that the Supreme Court verdict was also a moral defeat for Deuba who wanted to go to elections as per Oli’s plan.”

Many twists and turns

There are three alternatives to elect a new government. First, the prime minister may ask for a chance to prove his majority in the House. But according to Oli’s confidants, he is unlikely to pursue this course.

Second, the House could press ahead with the old no-confidence motion against Oli. If the motion is endorsed, the alternative candidate proposed mentioned in the motion will be elected the new head of government.

But the constitution is unclear about what happens if the prime minister resigns prior to the House voting.

Says Ram Narayan Bidari, a legal expert and lawmaker of the NCP Dahal-Nepal faction, “If the prime minister resigns, the post will be vacant and appointment of a new prime minister will commence as per section 1 of Article 76 of the constitution.”

According to this Article, the country’s President can appoint as prime minister the parliamentary party leader of the party with a majority in the House. Following the de facto NCP split, the current NCP parliamentary party leader, KP Oli, will fall short of the 138 votes that will give him the majority in the 275-member lower house.

In such a case President Bidya Bhandari, who has openly sided with Oli in the past, will be reluctant to recognize the NCP, which is yet to undergo a de jure split, as a single party.

Oli as parliamentary party leader can suspend NCP lawmakers involved in registering the no-confidence motion against him. But that will mean little as the final authority to approve the suspensions is with the House speaker. Disputes between Oli and Speaker Agni Sapkota, who represents the Dahal-Nepal faction, could escalate if Oli insists on taking action against dissenting NCP lawmakers.

“In the worst case, the House could be obstructed by the lawmakers representing the prime minister,” says an Oli-faction leader.

On the other hand, the Dahal-Nepal faction plans on changing the NCP parliamentary party leader. In fact, it has already settled on Dahal for the post.

“The court verdict has stopped a grievous violation of the constitution yet it has not ended the political deadlock,” says analyst Khanal. “We are now in a pre-December 20 situation, with the dispute between the two NCP factions still deadlocked.”

According to Khanal, ideally, Prime Minister Oli should resign on moral grounds, which could also ease the process of electing a new prime minister.

“If Oli is reluctant to go, the Dahal-Nepal faction can remove him as parliamentary party leader with the support of majority lawmakers in the party, if they have such support,” Khanal told ApEx.

Congress, the kingmaker

Now all eyes are on Congress with its 63 seats in the federal lower house. Dissident faction leaders Dahal and Nepal have already visited NC President Deuba’s residence soliciting support for the formation of a new government.

But according to analyst Khanal, technically, the Dahal-Nepal faction would be the natural first choice to lead the government given its position in the parliament. “Going by their claims and media reports, they have a majority in parliamentary party to elect a new parliamentary party leader. As of now, they will also be the largest party if the NCP splits. This means the President can appoint its leader as new prime minister,” Khanal says.

But he says the chances of PM Oli formally splitting the party through an ordinance are higher. According to current laws, a political party can be split only with the support of 40 percent of its lawmakers as well as 40 percent of its central committee members.

Thus the question of who becomes the next prime minister will be clear only when the NCP row settles one way or the other.

On Falgun 1 (Feb 13), the day ex-Maoists commemorate the anniversary of the decade-long insurgency, former Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai tweeted a photo.

The photo shows (from left to right) Ram Bahadur Thapa, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Bhattarai and Mohan Baidya in garlands, their right fists punching the air. Curiously, the quartet of top Maoist insurgency-time leaders now find themselves in four different political parties. Before, they were together in CPN (Maoist) and had jointly led the insurgency from 1996 to 2006, with Dahal as the supreme commander of the underground outfit.

Disputes between them started to surface when the Maoists transitioned to peaceful democratic politics, and especially after they came to lead the government following their resounding victory in the 2008 Constituent Assembly elections. Dahal’s relations with his fellow revolutionaries started to sour, too.  

‘Divorce’ with Bhattarai

Among the leaders discussed above, Bhattarai was the last to sever ties with Dahal when he decided to form the Naya Shakti Party under his own leadership following the promulgation of the new constitution in 2015.

Bhattarai apparently ended the two-decade-long working relation with Dahal after it became clear that he would never get to lead the party.

“Bhattarai may not have quit the Maoist party had he gotten a chance to lead it,” says writer and journalist Netra Panthi, who has published a Nepali book titled ‘Divorce’ based on Dahal-Bhattarai relations. “But Dahal gave no hint he was ready to let Bhattarai become chairman anytime soon.”

Mumaram Khanal, a political analyst who left the mother Maoist party in 2005, contrasts Dahal’s reluctance to relinquish power to the willingness of another popular communist leader, the then CPN-UML General Secretary Madan Bhandari, to share power. Bhandari had offered party chairmanship to Manmohan Adhikari even though Bhandari could have easily kept the post for himself. “But Dahal never thought of offering the top job to anyone else,” Khanal adds.

According to other ex-Maoist leaders, Dahal used different stratagems to sideline other leaders and retain his chairmanship. Bhattarai was one of his early victims.

Bhattarai, the SLC examinations topper in 1970 and a PhD holder from Jawaharlal Nehru University, was one of the most influential leaders in the Maoist party and helped attract many youths to the Maoist cause. But Dahal tried to sully Bhattarai’s image right from the start of the insurgency.

“Dahal used to tell party rank and file that although Baburam Bhattarai was not a real communist, he would be useful tool to achieve the revolution’s goals,” a former Maoist leader told ApEx.

Later, Dahal started portraying Bhattarai as someone uncomfortably close to India, which further widened their rift. 

Old differences with Thapa

Ram Bahadur Thapa, Dahal’s top lieutenant during the insurgency, left his former supreme commander in 2012 but then rejoined the mother party following Bhattarai’s 2016 exit. As a reward, Dahal in 2018 nominated Thapa as home minister in the KP Oli-led government.

Less than five years after his patch up with Dahal, Thapa left him again, this time for Oli’s NCP faction.

“Thapa decided to ditch Dahal and side with Oli so that he could retain his ministerial berth. It’s simple as that,” says Lekhnath Neupane, who was until recently a close confidant of Thapa.

Panthi agrees with Neupane’s reading. “He understood that the division between Oli and Dahal was based purely on power calculations and thus he had no compunction in abandoning him,” Panthi says.

Thapa’s relation with Dahal had never been stable, even before the Maoist insurgency. Thapa had first left the Dahal-led party in 1991 to form a new political outfit under Mohan Baidya’s leadership but he had later rejoined the mother party.

During the civil war, Thapa was axed from the Maoist central committee following allegations of sexual misconduct. The allegation was a big hurdle in his ascent up party hierarchy and soured relations with Dahal.

Baidya and the army

Just like Thapa, Mohan Baidya, the top Maoist ideologue during the insurgency, also left Dahal in 2012, following a dispute over the party high command’s decision to send Nepal Army into the UNMIN-supervised Maoist cantonments.

The senior communist leader had come to have major differences with Dahal since the party joined the peace process in 2006. He had also registered many dissenting political papers in the party’s major gatherings.

Along with the army row, Dahal’s pick of ministers in the Baburam Bhattarai-led government in 2011 riled Baidya and other leaders in his camp.

One major reason behind the 2012 Maoist split was disgruntlement of CP Gajurel and Dev Gurung, both of whom were unsatisfied about not getting the ministries of their choice.

Gajural had sought the Ministry of Foreign Affairs but Dahal appointed Narayan Kaji Shrestha in the post. Dahal also picked Barsha Man Pun as Finance Minister, dampening the hope of Dev Gurung, another claimant to the post. “The Maoist party may not have split at the time had Gajurel been made foreign minister,” says Panthi.

Baidya had been arrested in India in 2004 when the Maoist insurgency was at its peak. His faction suspected the party’s changing internal power dynamics—i.e. growing clout of Dahal and Bhattarai—as responsible for his arrest.

All about power with Oli

Ahead of the 2017 parliament polls, long-time arch rivals Oli and Dahal decided to forge an electoral alliance, to the surprise of many. After sweeping federal and provincial polls by winning two-thirds of contested seats, the two communist parties they led merged to form the Nepal Communist Party.

Dahal and Oli projected themselves as two pilots of the NCP jet. But Dahal’s partnership with his former foe didn’t last long as well and the two parted ways less than three years after party unification.

“Dahal made the blunder of merging the Maoist party with Oli’s outfit without thinking about its repercussions. The unity was unlikely to last given the self-centric nature of the two leaders,” says analyst Neupane.

Adds Mumaram Khanal: “Dahal didn’t merge his party with UML because the two parties shared a political ideology. It was so that he could get to be prime minister and party leader after Oli”.

Dahal had also agreed to Oli’s proposal to continue with Bidya Bhandari as the country’s president after Oli assured him the prime minister’s post two and half years later. “Had Dahal agreed with Madhav Nepal and Jhalanath Khanal to pick another candidate for president, the political course today would be vastly different,” Mumaram Khanal says.

Family over party

Dahal could also not do justice to many of his former Maoist colleagues. Chakrapani Khanal, better known by his nom de guerre Baldev, was one of the top commanders of the Maoist army during the insurgency. He got to be a government minister only when his party had joined the government for the seventh time after the start of the peace process.

By then, other Maoist comrades of similar ranks had already become ministers multiple times. The likes of Barshaman Pun, Janardan Sharma, Top Bahadur Rayamajhi and Shakti Basnet were Baldev’s contemporaries yet they seemed to have been repeatedly favored over him.

According to party sources the now-underground Netra Bikram Chand Biplob’s relation with Dahal soured after the Maoist supremo suspected him of leaking the fact that he used to consume alcohol during the insurgency. Chand had been overlooking Dahal’s security details while he was holed up in Rolpa during the last years of the insurgency. 

Likewise, another senior Maoist leader Mani Thapa recently left Dahal’s NCP faction after Oli offered him a ministerial berth, something Dahal had failed to do.

“When the Maoist party got into government, Dahal appointed ministers who could materially enrich the party and not necessarily those who had made the most contribution to the party’s cause,” says Panthi, who is about to publish another book on Nepali politics.

But Dahal does not fail to make big promises. “He promises many things to many people when he is not in power. But then he cannot fulfil all his promises when his party gets to power, alienating many,” says Panthi.

The former Maoist supremo also started to increasingly favor his own kith and kin. His daughter Renu Dahal was largely unknown among Maoist cadres before she was picked by her father to contest the 2013 Constituent Assembly election from Kathmandu-1.

Renu lost, but then she was again fielded as a candidate for mayor of Bharatpur metropolitan in 2017 local elections. Dahal had even forged a poll alliance with Nepali Congress to ensure her victory. Yet Renu was still trailing CPN-UML candidate Devi Gyawali in vote-counting when Maoist representatives at the counting-station started tearing valid ballot papers. There was a reelection and Renu came on top this time.

Likewise, Dahal’s daughter-in-law Bina Magar was appointed the Minister for Water Supply in the Oli cabinet. When PM Oli wanted to remove her owing to her poor job performance and her alleged involvement in irregularities, Dahal made it clear that her removal would be unacceptable.

Dahal’s critics say his first preference while making important appointments are his immediate family members, followed by other relatives, the members of his faction and only then other party members.

Revolutionary no more

All his flaws do not stop his admirers from talking highly of Dahal, and seeing in him a dynamic and pragmatic leader.

Shakti Basnet, a close confidant of Dahal, says Bhattarai, Baidya and Thapa all left the mother party due to their ideological differences and not necessarily because of Dahal.

“Prachanda comrade took a pragmatic political line, and not everyone agreed with it. Yet you cannot deny that Nepali politics has revolved around his agenda since 2006,” Basnet says.

But critics say Dahal’s new pragmatic line is the result of his abandonment of all revolutionary agendas. “Perhaps other leaders are less inspired to follow him as he has now abandoned all his revolutionary agendas. He has started living lavishly and become money-minded and power-hungry,” says Shyam Shrestha, an analyst of left politics.

According to analyst Khanal, Dahal’s unbroken leadership of the Maoist party for over two decades might make him believe he cannot be replaced, and nor can he for the same reason understand the aspirations of others vying for party leadership.

It was unrealistic to expect the NCP to remain intact for long given the high political ambitions of both Oli and Dahal, its two co-chairs. But perhaps Dahal’s signature failures also contributed to the split.