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President Vladimir Putin has extended an official invitation to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to attend a military parade in Moscow on May 9, a day marking the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. The diplomatic reward offered by Russia for North Korea’s military involvement in the war in Ukraine has far surpassed expectations. 

North Korea’s military and diplomatic standing has changed significantly compared to its position prior to the war, before its arms transfers and troop support. In addition to receiving favorable treatment from Russia, North Korea is now capturing the attention of key European nations backing Ukraine. South Korea, Japan and China are increasingly anxious about the potential regional impact of North Korea’s growing leverage with Russia. 

Since the start of the second Trump administration—which this year has begun prioritizing short-term economic interests without distinguishing between allies and adversaries—North Korea’s leverage with Russia is inevitably set to grow even stronger. Notably, in contrast to the previous Biden administration, the Trump administration has remained silent on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and is pushing for an end-of-war settlement that favors Russia. 

Trump has launched the most basic and straightforward realist strategy of balance of power—that is, an attempt to detach Russia from China, which is the United States’ primary hegemonic rival, and align it with the US. Whether this strategy will succeed remains uncertain, but Trump is now trying to draw Russia away from China in much the same way that former President Nixon had pulled China away from the Soviet Union in the 1970s. 

Putin, who combines authoritarian rule at home with a reckless yet experienced command of international politics, clearly understands Trump’s intentions and is looking to exploit them as much as possible in end-of-war negotiations. Trump is reportedly invited to the May 9 military parade, and naturally, Chinese President Xi Jinping has been invited too. We may even witness a surreal scene where Trump and Xi are seated on either side of Putin, with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un standing beside Trump, smiling, as they all watch the procession of Russia’s latest weapons. 

The prospect of the leader of North Korea—the world’s most internationally isolated pariah state—standing shoulder to shoulder with the heads of the US, China and Russia is extraordinary. Though unlikely, should it come to pass, it would deliver a profound shock not only to America’s allies in Europe and East Asia, but also to China. The mere discussion of such a scenario underscores that North Korea’s leverage over Russia has emerged as a key variable in the security dynamics of Europe and East Asia.

If Kim attends Russia’s Victory Day parade and stands alongside Xi on either side of Putin, it is worth thinking about what that would mean for China. Most importantly, it would mark China’s entry into a trilateral military and comprehensive alliance framework with Russia and North Korea—an alignment it has long avoided. The formation of such a trilateral structure would push established Western powers to increase their vigilance, containment efforts and pressure on China. 

Together with Russia and North Korea, China would undeniably be seen as a threat to the military, economic and technological security—that is, the converging securities—of the leading Western nations. While the Global South—developing countries—may not respond strongly, China would suffer a serious reputational blow by being branded a security threat to the developed world. 

China would also, in effect, be officially acknowledging North Korea’s leverage over Russia. In terms of international political and security dynamics, China and North Korea have long had aligned strategic interests, with North Korea lacking any viable patron state other than China—leaving it in a position of absolute disadvantage to China. 

However, Russia has now emerged, at least partially, as an alternative backer, introducing a significant new variable into the Sino-North Korean relationship that cannot be ignored. As part of its military cooperation with Russia, North Korea has been acquiring a range of advanced strategic weapon technologies from Moscow to strengthen its independent military capabilities. Russia has already formally recognized North Korea’s nuclear weapons and their delivery systems. 

For North Korea, this represents a diplomatic triumph—like rain after a long drought. But for China, it marks a serious blow to its national interests, and this new reality is expected to become more deeply entrenched in the coming years. To date, China has refrained from offering explicit support or endorsement of North Korea in the military domain, including its nuclear weapons program. In particular, Beijing has consistently maintained a cautious and reserved position regarding North Korea’s nuclear armament.

Then how should China respond to the deepening rapprochement between North Korea and Russia? Over the past two years, as Russia-North Korea ties have gained momentum, China has largely ignored the situation and remained unresponsive. To some extent, North Korea’s military support for Russia has brought indirect benefits to China, as Beijing itself has avoided providing military aid to Moscow. 

However, the outcome has been an increase in North Korea’s leverage over Russia. One possible course of action for China is to refrain from participating in the Russia–North Korea military cooperation and begin with a passive response, in order to avoid being drawn into a trilateral military alliance framework with Russia and North Korea. Trump is expected to pursue direct negotiations with North Korea this year. North Korea, in turn, will likely seek to make the most of its leverage over Russia during this process. 

Perhaps the first thing to watch is who will attend next month’s Russian military parade. Kim? Trump? Xi? From Japan and South Korea to France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Poland, all eyes are on which direction the shadow of China—looming behind Russia and North Korea—falls. The United States, of course, is watching as well.

The author is a professor of Political Science and International Studies at Yonsei University