US-India tariff: Impacts on the domestic economy
In today’s global economy, tariffs have evolved from mere protectionist barriers to tools of geopolitical strategy. The US-China tariff war, which began during Donald Trump’s first term in 2018, has already brought about a decisive shift in global trade flows.
The latest US decision to extend targeted tariffs on selected Indian goods has been framed as a ‘leveling measure’. Yet, it has also created new impetus for India to deepen market access discussions with Washington and strengthen its position as a reliable trading partner. This move could be a catalyst for India to negotiate more favorable long-term terms by demonstrating its manufacturing flexibility.
Nepal also has many goods on the top list of goods imported from neighboring India. This means that the new US customs policy will inevitably have an impact on Nepal-India trade and the overall economy of Nepal. After the upgrade to a developing country, Nepal’s preferential market access facility (GSP) period has expired and the country has started to face a 10 percent customs duty, which seems to be an opportunity for the country not to increase it.
After this, it can be expected that investment will flow into Nepal from abroad and exports will increase. A large part of Nepal's trade—both exports and imports—depends on India. According to the data of the Customs Department, 64 percent of Nepal’s imports in the fiscal year 2024-25 came from the Indian market. Similarly, India accounted for 67 percent of total exports. Since this is the case, changes in the US-India trade policy are certain to affect Nepal.
The US has imposed a 50 percent reciprocal tariff on India and a 10 percent tariff on Nepal, which is expected to give Nepal a competitive advantage in trade, but Nepal needs to take concrete steps from product development to export promotion to produce the quantities it can export to the US.
Looking at the past, the US is Nepal’s second largest export destination after India. Nepal exported goods worth Rs 18.32bn to the US in 2024-25, which is six percent more than the previous year.
This should be taken as an encouraging and positive step. In addition, to make all this sustainable and increase further, it is necessary and imperative for Nepal to create a joint mechanism between the government and the private sector to reduce transshipment risks and take advantage of customs rates.
There should be no delay on this front. The US has imposed only 10 percent reciprocal customs duty on Nepal. In such a situation, if trade negotiations with India fail and a 50 percent customs duty is imposed on India, there will be a 40 percent difference in customs rates between Nepal and India.
Even if the recently-imposed additional 25 percent customs duty is withdrawn, the difference in customs rates between these two countries will be 15 percent. Even a 15 percent difference in customs rates is very large in international trade. Nepal should be able to use this situation to its advantage.
Nepal’s main exports to the US are woolen carpets, rugs, ready-made garments, felt goods, clay and other metal utensils and handicrafts. In addition, apart from India, the US has imposed a 19–20 percent customs duty on other countries in the region—Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka—which gives Nepal a competitive advantage.
In short, India has been exporting more goods such as carpets, textiles and rugs to the US than to Nepal. Similarly, Bangladesh is the largest exporter of ready-made garments in South Asia.
And, the US is also importing from it. Nepal also uses Indian land for trade with third countries. Although the trade war between India and the US could also bring uncertainty to Nepal’s trade routes with third countries, its likelihood is low.
The new US tariff policy seems to make Indian goods more expensive in the US market. As a result, Indian manufacturers may have to restructure their production systems. If India starts losing the US market, the Nepali market will also become more expensive, given chances of India adopting a policy of reducing production. Most of the industries operating in Nepal import raw materials from India and this means our production costs may go up. Machinery parts, industrial equipment, clothing and agricultural products from India are most likely to become more expensive in Nepal, exposing the Nepali populace to the risk of a high inflation.
In addition, the Indian rupee will weaken further as India’s exports are affected and dollar income decreases. This problem will be further complicated by the fact that Nepal’s currency is ‘pegged’ with the Indian currency. This is also the reason why Nepal’s monetary policy has not been independent.
This will naturally have an impact on the Nepali rupee. As a result, not only will Nepal’s dollar income decrease, payments will also become more expensive. In that case, the interest on foreign loan assistance will be expensive and so will the repayment.
The Nepali market may also benefit from the Indo-US trade war. If Indian products cannot enter the US market easily, India may adopt a policy of reducing prices and seeking alternative markets. Nepal can benefit from that. If India adopts this policy, the price of Indian goods imported into Nepal, such as food, industrial raw materials, and machinery parts, may decrease. According to public data, Nepal currently exports ready-made garments worth around Rs 4bn to the US. There is no doubt that this is likely to increase many times over in a few years if the existing customs duty remains in place.
If this policy works in the long term, the ‘backward forward linkage’ of the export-oriented Nepali industry is certain to become even stronger. After the 2015 earthquake, the US had given Nepal preferential market access to 77 different items. The Nepal government should take the initiative for similar preferential market access. For now, it is too early to analyze how Trump’s policies will pan out. But if implemented, India’s export earnings will decrease. The direct impact of this will be a decrease in dollar income for India as well as Nepal, making foreign payments expensive. This will ultimately mean a surge in inflation. There is also the danger of the US aggressive ‘tariffs’ triggering a global economic recession.
What to do with excess liquidity?
The term liquidity trap was coined by economist John Maynard Keynes in 1936. A liquidity trap is when there is excess liquidity in the market but the banking sector is unable to invest and there is no demand for credit. This is why the banking sector is forced to further reduce interest rates. When investment is weak, the price of goods and services also increases.
Banks have large sums of money in their deposits and are not borrowing. This is a problem because banks have to pay interest on the money they have. The state of cash availability in banks and financial institutions is called liquidity apart from the quality or ability of any asset to be converted into immediate expenditure or payable amount.
In the banking and financial sector, liquidity is also understood as immediately investable capital. Even with low interest rates, there is no demand for credit from the business sector, but rather consumption and investment are reduced, cash hoarding is encouraged and capital is transferred abroad, that is, capital flight. When liquidity in such a market increases, investors are worried that they will not get a return. In such a situation, monetary policy is powerless because it cannot be implemented effectively.
Nepal Rastra Bank is the regulator of managing bank liquidity in Nepal, so it has a large number of tools to control bank liquidity. Some of the methods are increasing the CRR and SLR ratios, increasing reverse repo, issuing government securities, increasing bank rates, etc. For some time now, there has been a significant decrease in excess liquidity and credit flow.
Deposits kept by the general public in banks, amounts kept by banks in the central bank, financial instruments that are bought and sold in the market, and precious metals such as gold and silver have high liquidity.
There are some reasons for this which include: Lack of clear explanation of currency liberalization, financial chaos, non-viability of the economy, sluggishness in the capital market, post-covid economic situation etc., unpreparedness of business, trade and industry friendly environment.
In short, unless some security is given to the bank officials, they are less likely to lend. This excess liquidity, which could have driven economic growth under ideal circumstances of the country and monetary situation, is being underutilized mainly due to declining credit activity and increasing burden of non-banking assets, which is currently seen in Nepal.
Liquidity problem
Despite the country having sufficient cash reserves, banks are struggling to mobilize funds profitably. Economic uncertainty and declining public confidence have brought about and are overshadowing a dramatic slowdown in credit distribution in the country. Borrowers worried over financial instability are reluctant to borrow more, while banks, burdened by a growing default burden, are tightening lending standards. Adding to these problems is the growth of non-banking assets—assets that banks have acquired due to loan defaults, usually real estate, which is also a problem, and the current budget. Even in the past, the idea of opening an asset management company did not work.
Service vs manufacturing
Nepal currently has a huge service industry. This is a bright spot. The problem is that lending to the service industry is a struggle fraught with great risks. There is almost always zero physical assets and service industries are always valued by their equity value and their overall brand name and demand. Banks are uncomfortable lending to the service industry as well as the manufacturing industry. One because the assets are always intangible and the other because of the existing NPAs.
Liquidity management in Nepal in a difficult situation. It would not be an exaggeration to say that economic stability is the main macroeconomic goal of any country, developed or developing. Fiscal policy and monetary policy ensure this, which is not possible without the availability of liquidity and its proper mobilization. The main source of liquidity is deposits received from various agencies and individuals, external remittances and loan recovery. Looking at the current context of Nepal, on the one hand, there is a predominance of consumer credit, and on the other, due to the slowdown in industry and trade, the disposable income of businesspeople and the general public has decreased, which is making it difficult to pay the principal and interest on loans taken from banks.
The bitter but real question has begun to arise whether the banking sector will find it difficult to manage liquidity due to the country’s excess liquidity and will fall into a liquidity trap. The budget for the fiscal 2025-26 has arrived, there is a liquidity mechanism, monetary policy will come, how will it be addressed?
In this context, businesspeople had to run their businesses to repay bank loans. Consumers had to increase consumption. At the same time, banks should be aware that they should not delay in formulating short-term, medium-term and long-term strategies to solve the problem of liquidity management.
The country’s banking sector is experiencing a terrible paradox.
Despite having sufficient cash reserves, banks are struggling to mobilize funds profitably. Economic uncertainty and declining public confidence have led to a dramatic slowdown in credit distribution. Borrowers worried about financial instability are hesitant to take on more loans, while banks burdened by the burden of increasing defaults are tightening lending standards.
Despite having adequate cash reserves, banks are struggling to mobilize funds profitably. Economic uncertainty and declining public confidence have led to a dramatic slowdown in credit distribution. Borrowers concerned about financial instability are reluctant to borrow more, while banks, burdened by growing defaults, are tightening lending standards. The Daily Liquidity Facility (DCF) Procedures of the Nepal Rastra Bank (Second Amendment) Provides detailed information on the procedures and processes to be followed for the DCF and the Overnight Liquidity Facility under the Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) system operated by Nepal Rastra Bank.
It clarifies how participating financial institutions can utilize the liquidity facility, the management of collateral, calculation of interest, and the additional charges and actions to be taken in case of default.
It also covers the use of collateral management accounts and settlement accounts, the format of monthly reports and the rules on recovery. In the country, the Nepal Rastra Bank is the bank that sends the required liquidity to the banking system and absorbs it when there is excess.
The procedure was prepared by the central bank with the aim of providing immediate liquidity to banks and financial institutions in case of liquidity shortage while transacting in the Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) system. This has been made by exercising the authority granted by Section 110(3) of the Nepal Rastra Bank Act, 2058. In Nepal, credit has not been able to expand because there is currently pressure on businesses to repay loans rather than demand for loans. Central banks manage liquidity in the economy to ensure financial stability and control inflation.
A detailed overview of why and how they collect excess liquidity, the benefits of this practice, and the costs associated with it shows that: Why do central banks collect excess liquidity?
Control of inflation
Excess liquidity can lead to high inflation because more money can buy the same amount of goods and services. By collecting liquidity, central banks can help stabilize prices.
Financial markets are stable: Too much liquidity can result in rising asset prices and increased risk-taking. Reducing liquidity can help maintain market discipline. Promoting sustainable economic growth: By ensuring that liquidity levels are appropriate, central banks can help the economy grow sustainably rather than overly dynamic.
Managing currency value: Excess liquidity can also weaken a country’s currency. By controlling liquidity, central banks can help maintain or strengthen the value of a currency.
How do central banks raise excess liquidity?
Open market operations (OMOs): The central bank sells government securities in the open market to absorb excess cash. When financial institutions buy these securities, they pay for them from their reserves, which reduces the amount of money in circulation.
Interest rate adjustments: By lowering interest rates, central banks can make borrowing cheaper and saving more unattractive, which can lead to lower spending and investment, which in turn reduces liquidity.
Reserve requirements: Increasing the reserve requirement ratio forces banks to hold a larger portion of their deposits in reserves, which reduces the amount available for lending. This can directly reduce liquidity in the economy.
Fixed deposits and reverse repos: Central banks can also use instruments such as fixed deposits or reverse repurchase agreements to temporarily absorb liquidity. Banks deposit funds with the central bank for a specified period, reducing the money supply.
Benefits of liquidity deposits
Inflation control: Helps maintain price stability, which is important for economic confidence and planning.
Financial stability: Reduces the risk of asset overvaluations, which can lead to a financial crisis if they become too extreme.
Promotes responsible lending: By controlling excess liquidity, banks can be encouraged to lend more responsibly, reducing the risk of default.
Strong currency: A strong national currency can benefit importers and reduce the cost of foreign borrowing.
Long-term economic growth: By creating a more stable economic environment, central banks can foster conditions that support sustainable growth. As for the costs of liquidity management, they can vary depending on the methods used
Interest costs: If a central bank raises interest rates, it can increase the cost of borrowing for governments and consumers, which can have a liquidity effect on the economy.
Opportunity costs: Selling securities or raising reserve requirements can limit the amount of money available for banks to lend, potentially slowing economic growth.
Administrative costs: Implementing and managing liquidity management operations incurs administrative costs for the central bank.
Market effects: Aggressive liquidity management can cause market instability or disruptions, which can have broader economic effects. In short, despite the costs of managing excess liquidity, it can also contribute to economic stability, inflation control and sustainable growth.
In short, while there are costs to managing excess liquidity, the benefits in terms of economic stability, inflation control and sustainable growth often outweigh these costs. Therefore, central banks must carefully balance their liquidity management strategies to effectively achieve their monetary policy goals. Collaboration with the business community is essential in resolving the issues raised, including the questions raised regarding the current capital and credit guidelines for liquidity management, 2079.
It seems that a comprehensive roundtable conference should be held immediately between bankers, businesspeople and the government to arrive at a conclusion on why the banking sector is not enthusiastic about credit investment and why there is no demand for credit despite the significant increase in deposits. The economy is weakening due to increasing dependence on consumption, government revenue and imports. Therefore, for proper management of liquidity, emphasis should be placed on manufacturing and agricultural-oriented investment, and the development of import-substituting industries and exports should be increased.
Reviewing a high-level report
Chairperson of the High-Level Economic Reforms Commission, Rameshwor Khanal, recently submitted the commission’s report to the Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, suggesting a number of measures to boost the economy.
The measures include suggestions like making the economy borderless to benefit from the global economy, a radical suggestion in a country like ours where the government does not admit that anything is wrong and the central bank paints a rosy picture even when there’s a 3-4 percent economic growth.
In our case, most economic forecasts are as reliable as weather forecasts, if not more.
What steps does a weak economy need to achieve a healthy growth? Before jumping into the report, let’s take some lessons:
Investing in human capital
First, smaller countries like ours should identify what they have. If a country is small, it would be appropriate to increase human capital just like what Singapore did.
Having a good leader makes a great difference. Singapore is a shining example. The former prime minister of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, transformed a poor country into the world’s second richest in terms of GDP per capita in six decades by prioritizing education, infrastructure, services and industry.
Rwanda is another example. It spends 22 percent of its entire GDP on education, while Singapore spends up to 24 percent of its entire GDP.
Increased infra investment
Take the example of China, whose public transport infrastructure is one of the best. Japan cannot match China's numbers but the quality of its public transportation, roads and high-speed rail makes it the best in the whole world!
Rails and roads should be a priority for poor countries too. The Covid-19 pandemic not only challenged human health, but also dealt the global economy a serious blow.
Emphasis on policy reforms
The above-mentioned report has presented a roadmap for economic reforms by suggesting steps for the creation of a private sector-friendly environment.
Economic policies should be formulated to create economic opportunities and build an economy where all sectors can compete equally, the report goes. In terms of monetary policy, the report recommends reducing the band of the interest rate corridor, reducing interest rate fluctuations by making liquidity management more active, confining inflation to a single digit by keeping it in a range of 4-6 percent. It has called for discussions, research and preparations on alternatives to a fixed exchange regime with the Indian currency.
The report suggests radical changes aimed at institutional reforms. In particular, it suggests that every ministry, department and central-level body should formulate and implement a periodic improvement strategy by determining indicators to promote business-friendly and investment-friendly nature of its work and to provide services to citizens.
In the light of these suggestions, is it possible to not transfer secretaries deputed at federal ministries for at least two years in an unstable political situation?
Is it also possible to not transfer employees deputed at ministries for five years and let teams undertaking development projects work for five years?
Citing increased expenditure on social security, training and pensions, the report has recommended increasing the age for mandatory retirement of government employees to 60 from 58 years. This suggestion makes sense, given that the current average life expectancy is 73 years.
Against old and regressive acts
What’s more, the report recommends repealing 15 old and regressive acts, a demand that the private sector, especially the Confederation of Nepalese Industries (CNI), has been raising for a long time. They include Income Stamp Duty Act (2019), Black Market and Certain Other Social Offenses and Punishment Act ( 2032), Private Forest Nationalization Act ( 2013), Administrative Procedure (Regulation) Act (2013), Revenue Leakage (Investigation and Control) Act (2052), Foreign Investment Prohibition Act (2021), Nepal Agency Act (2014), Provincial Development Plans (Implementation) Act (2013), Import and Export (Control) Act (2013) and Social Behaviour Reform Act.
The report is against increasing social security allowances for the next five years, recommending that the allowances should be reviewed every two years after that, on the basis of price inflation. The government is currently providing senior citizens a monthly old-age allowance of Rs 4,000, among others. Although this is a good suggestion in terms of treasury, it is difficult to implement before the elections.
On BFIs, derivatives market
The report recommends amending Banks and Financial Institutions Act to allow the operation of peer-to-peer lending institutions, allowing crowdfunding through the Securities Act and putting in place a licensing policy and regulatory arrangement for the same. It has suggested that the Securities and Exchange Board of Nepal (SEBON) should create necessary infrastructure for the development of the derivatives market. Legal and regulatory arrangements should be made for angel financing and arrangements made for registering potential angel investors, the report suggests: Since such investors invest in start-ups and bear the risk, only 10 percent income tax should be levied on the income received from such investments, it states.
Furthermore, the report has suggested reducing transaction fees for large-scale share transactions while standing against the opening of a new stock exchange. It has recommended restructuring Nepal Stock Exchange and increasing its capital with the participation of the private sector.
The commission has expressed belief that the suggestions proposed in the report will be helpful in creating economic opportunities and expanding entrepreneurs’ access to available economic opportunities, expanding employment within the country, and achieving high and sustainable economic growth.
To what extent will the government be able to implement the suggestions given through the report? Let’s wait and watch.
